Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Newbury draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Newbury, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: High draws have cost 1.46L per run over 7f to 8f, across 1,180 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Newbury together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.33L	2,934
Low-middle	+0.59L	2,968
Middle	+0.40L	2,976
Middle-high	-0.36L	2,961
High	-0.97L	2,927

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.13L	774
Low-middle	+0.56L	778
Middle	+0.85L	768
Middle-high	-0.38L	777
High	-1.16L	770

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.26L	282
Low-middle	+0.64L	292
Middle	+0.48L	284
Middle-high	-0.61L	292
High	-0.79L	280

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.05L	362
Low-middle	+0.39L	362
Middle	+0.89L	354
Middle-high	-0.36L	361
High	-0.96L	360

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.08L	130
Low-middle	+0.86L	124
Middle	+1.54L	130
Middle-high	+0.08L	124
High	-2.51L	130

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.24L	352
Low-middle	+0.24L	308
Middle	+0.68L	342
Middle-high	-0.13L	307
High	-0.52L	350

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.86L	244
Low-middle	+0.55L	263
Middle	+0.82L	223
Middle-high	-0.08L	263
High	-2.12L	243

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.12L	114
Low-middle	+1.16L	114
Middle	+1.15L	117
Middle-high	-0.94L	114
High	-1.53L	113

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.33L	1,185
Low-middle	+0.73L	1,198
Middle	+0.43L	1,199
Middle-high	-0.05L	1,198
High	-1.46L	1,180

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.42L	319
Low-middle	+0.63L	320
Middle	+0.50L	326
Middle-high	-0.47L	319
High	-1.10L	318

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.36L	615
Low-middle	+0.68L	626
Middle	+0.26L	622
Middle-high	+0.16L	630
High	-1.48L	614

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.17L	251
Low-middle	+0.99L	252
Middle	+0.73L	251
Middle-high	-0.03L	249
High	-1.88L	248

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.28L	112
Low-middle	-0.02L	176
Middle	+0.88L	144
Middle-high	-0.49L	173
High	-0.65L	109

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.40L	514
Low-middle	+0.53L	452
Middle	+0.50L	517
Middle-high	-0.00L	454
High	-1.37L	513

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.01L	409
Low-middle	+1.02L	410
Middle	-0.07L	372
Middle-high	+0.48L	412
High	-1.43L	407

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.08L	150
Low-middle	+1.40L	160
Middle	+0.91L	166
Middle-high	-1.06L	159
High	-2.44L	151

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.78L	583
Low-middle	+0.24L	584
Middle	+0.42L	598
Middle-high	-1.09L	580
High	-0.38L	580

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.79L	144
Low-middle	+0.76L	152
Middle	+0.54L	162
Middle-high	-1.96L	152
High	-0.14L	144

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.47L	326
Low-middle	+0.42L	323
Middle	+0.55L	320
Middle-high	-0.94L	319
High	-0.51L	325

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.66L	113
Low-middle	-0.99L	109
Middle	-0.11L	116
Middle-high	-0.31L	109
High	-0.30L	111

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	-0.10L	106
Middle	+1.00L	102
Middle-high	-1.64L	105

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.43L	283
Low-middle	-0.05L	244
Middle	+0.18L	291
Middle-high	-0.80L	242
High	+0.11L	282

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.58L	157
Low-middle	+1.09L	168
Middle	+0.27L	136
Middle-high	-1.65L	167
High	-0.23L	155

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.41L	320
Low-middle	+0.37L	334
Middle	-0.32L	339
Middle-high	-0.59L	334
High	+0.15L	325

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.46L	158
Low-middle	-0.31L	166
Middle	-1.11L	166
Middle-high	+0.43L	166
High	-0.41L	159

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+0.87L	114
Middle	+0.79L	108
Middle-high	-1.73L	114

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.87L	150
Low-middle	-0.66L	122
Middle	-0.79L	146
Middle-high	-0.32L	123
High	+0.69L	152

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Newbury. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	17.0% of 370	11.2% of 852	7.3% of 847	8.5% of 798
Low-middle	17.3% of 394	12.5% of 865	8.6% of 887	7.4% of 759
Middle	18.5% of 428	10.9% of 842	8.7% of 823	7.7% of 804
Middle-high	13.5% of 362	10.9% of 788	8.6% of 841	7.4% of 879
High	14.4% of 327	8.9% of 722	7.5% of 710	6.5% of 1,074

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Newbury racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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