Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Newbury draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Newbury, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: High draws have cost 1.48L per run over 7f to 8f, across 1,169 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Newbury together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.33L	2,906
Low-middle	+0.59L	2,946
Middle	+0.40L	2,946
Middle-high	-0.36L	2,939
High	-0.97L	2,899

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.12L	767
Low-middle	+0.56L	772
Middle	+0.84L	760
Middle-high	-0.38L	771
High	-1.13L	763

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.30L	278
Low-middle	+0.65L	289
Middle	+0.45L	279
Middle-high	-0.62L	289
High	-0.79L	276

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.00L	359
Low-middle	+0.39L	359
Middle	+0.88L	351
Middle-high	-0.35L	358
High	-0.90L	357

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.08L	130
Low-middle	+0.86L	124
Middle	+1.54L	130
Middle-high	+0.08L	124
High	-2.51L	130

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.22L	348
Low-middle	+0.24L	305
Middle	+0.66L	337
Middle-high	-0.14L	304
High	-0.52L	346

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.79L	241
Low-middle	+0.54L	260
Middle	+0.80L	220
Middle-high	-0.07L	260
High	-2.04L	240

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.12L	114
Low-middle	+1.16L	114
Middle	+1.15L	117
Middle-high	-0.94L	114
High	-1.53L	113

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.33L	1,174
Low-middle	+0.73L	1,189
Middle	+0.44L	1,187
Middle-high	-0.05L	1,189
High	-1.48L	1,169

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.41L	314
Low-middle	+0.60L	316
Middle	+0.54L	320
Middle-high	-0.47L	315
High	-1.10L	313

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.36L	609
Low-middle	+0.70L	621
Middle	+0.26L	616
Middle-high	+0.16L	625
High	-1.51L	608

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.17L	251
Low-middle	+0.99L	252
Middle	+0.73L	251
Middle-high	-0.03L	249
High	-1.88L	248

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.28L	112
Low-middle	-0.02L	176
Middle	+0.88L	144
Middle-high	-0.49L	173
High	-0.65L	109

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.42L	506
Low-middle	+0.55L	446
Middle	+0.52L	509
Middle-high	-0.01L	448
High	-1.41L	505

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.01L	409
Low-middle	+1.02L	410
Middle	-0.07L	372
Middle-high	+0.48L	412
High	-1.43L	407

Fields of 16+ runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.05L	147
Low-middle	+1.36L	157
Middle	+0.96L	162
Middle-high	-1.06L	156
High	-2.42L	148

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.79L	577
Low-middle	+0.25L	580
Middle	+0.41L	591
Middle-high	-1.08L	576
High	-0.38L	574

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.79L	142
Low-middle	+0.81L	150
Middle	+0.49L	159
Middle-high	-1.93L	150
High	-0.15L	142

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.48L	322
Low-middle	+0.42L	321
Middle	+0.55L	316
Middle-high	-0.95L	317
High	-0.51L	321

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.66L	113
Low-middle	-0.99L	109
Middle	-0.11L	116
Middle-high	-0.31L	109
High	-0.30L	111

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	-0.10L	106
Middle	+1.00L	102
Middle-high	-1.64L	105

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.44L	277
Low-middle	-0.03L	240
Middle	+0.14L	284
Middle-high	-0.78L	238
High	+0.11L	276

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.58L	157
Low-middle	+1.09L	168
Middle	+0.27L	136
Middle-high	-1.65L	167
High	-0.23L	155

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.39L	316
Low-middle	+0.37L	331
Middle	-0.30L	336
Middle-high	-0.60L	331
High	+0.16L	321

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.44L	156
Low-middle	-0.33L	165
Middle	-1.10L	164
Middle-high	+0.46L	165
High	-0.41L	157

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+0.87L	114
Middle	+0.79L	108
Middle-high	-1.73L	114

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.83L	146
Low-middle	-0.68L	119
Middle	-0.74L	143
Middle-high	-0.34L	120
High	+0.72L	148

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Newbury. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	16.5% of 364	11.1% of 848	7.3% of 840	8.5% of 787
Low-middle	17.4% of 390	12.5% of 863	8.5% of 879	7.5% of 751
Middle	18.1% of 425	11.0% of 835	8.8% of 815	7.7% of 792
Middle-high	13.4% of 357	10.9% of 786	8.7% of 832	7.4% of 873
High	14.2% of 325	8.9% of 716	7.5% of 702	6.5% of 1,063

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Newbury racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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