Musselburgh draw bias
What each part of the draw has really been worth at Musselburgh, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.
The strongest measured effect: Middle draws have been worth +2.76L per run over 16f to 19f, across 102 runs.
The whole picture, every trip
Every stalled run at Musselburgh together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | -0.33L | 2,046 |
| Low-middle | +0.10L | 2,085 |
| Middle | +0.11L | 2,121 |
| Middle-high | +0.31L | 2,084 |
| High | -0.20L | 2,047 |
Over 5f to 6f
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | -1.30L | 650 |
| Low-middle | -0.10L | 663 |
| Middle | +0.44L | 680 |
| Middle-high | +0.44L | 666 |
| High | +0.49L | 649 |
On firm ground
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | -1.75L | 144 |
| Low-middle | -0.05L | 139 |
| Middle | +0.74L | 158 |
| Middle-high | +0.79L | 141 |
| High | +0.22L | 145 |
On good ground
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | -1.21L | 452 |
| Low-middle | -0.11L | 465 |
| Middle | +0.35L | 465 |
| Middle-high | +0.38L | 466 |
| High | +0.57L | 450 |
Fields of 2-7 runners
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | -1.63L | 153 |
| Low-middle | -0.02L | 209 |
| Middle | +0.87L | 215 |
| Middle-high | +0.33L | 210 |
| High | -0.02L | 153 |
Fields of 8-11 runners
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | -0.95L | 338 |
| Low-middle | -0.07L | 284 |
| Middle | +0.06L | 312 |
| Middle-high | +0.50L | 285 |
| High | +0.53L | 338 |
Fields of 12-15 runners
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | -1.72L | 129 |
| Low-middle | -0.12L | 134 |
| Middle | +0.45L | 119 |
| Middle-high | +0.53L | 135 |
| High | +0.87L | 129 |
Over 7f to 8f
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | -0.10L | 816 |
| Low-middle | +0.27L | 854 |
| Middle | +0.09L | 845 |
| Middle-high | +0.17L | 850 |
| High | -0.45L | 817 |
On firm ground
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | -0.75L | 210 |
| Low-middle | +0.58L | 218 |
| Middle | +0.24L | 222 |
| Middle-high | +0.38L | 215 |
| High | -0.48L | 210 |
On good ground
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | -0.18L | 536 |
| Low-middle | +0.18L | 558 |
| Middle | +0.02L | 553 |
| Middle-high | +0.20L | 557 |
| High | -0.24L | 538 |
Fields of 2-7 runners
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | -1.09L | 170 |
| Low-middle | +0.64L | 255 |
| Middle | +0.32L | 216 |
| Middle-high | -0.03L | 254 |
| High | -0.23L | 170 |
Fields of 8-11 runners
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | -0.08L | 558 |
| Low-middle | +0.16L | 485 |
| Middle | +0.14L | 543 |
| Middle-high | +0.38L | 483 |
| High | -0.52L | 559 |
Fields of 12-15 runners
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low-middle | -0.07L | 114 |
| Middle-high | -0.30L | 113 |
Over 9f to 11f
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | +0.13L | 163 |
| Low-middle | +0.16L | 171 |
| Middle | +0.18L | 168 |
| Middle-high | +0.50L | 171 |
| High | -1.00L | 163 |
On good ground
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | +0.72L | 113 |
| Low-middle | -0.21L | 116 |
| Middle | +0.49L | 120 |
| Middle-high | +0.74L | 117 |
| High | -1.78L | 113 |
Over 12f to 15f
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | +0.70L | 313 |
| Low-middle | +0.15L | 302 |
| Middle | -1.39L | 326 |
| Middle-high | +1.23L | 301 |
| High | -0.57L | 314 |
On good ground
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | +2.05L | 208 |
| Low-middle | -0.11L | 199 |
| Middle | -1.81L | 219 |
| Middle-high | +1.15L | 197 |
| High | -1.13L | 208 |
Fields of 2-7 runners
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low-middle | +1.61L | 114 |
| Middle | -0.80L | 117 |
| Middle-high | +0.24L | 112 |
Fields of 8-11 runners
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | -0.11L | 164 |
| Low-middle | -1.08L | 134 |
| Middle | -1.60L | 154 |
| Middle-high | +2.29L | 134 |
| High | +0.61L | 167 |
Over 16f to 19f
| Draw | Lengths vs field average | Runs |
|---|---|---|
| Low | +0.12L | 104 |
| Middle | +2.76L | 102 |
| High | -0.16L | 104 |
Run styles from each part of the draw
Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Musselburgh. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.
| Draw | Led | Prominent | Midfield | Held up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | 17.6% of 335 | 13.4% of 606 | 9.7% of 454 | 5.2% of 611 |
| Low-middle | 23.7% of 337 | 14.8% of 589 | 13.0% of 483 | 5.7% of 648 |
| Middle | 24.9% of 354 | 13.0% of 591 | 12.3% of 455 | 4.9% of 688 |
| Middle-high | 24.1% of 370 | 12.9% of 559 | 11.6% of 398 | 6.7% of 714 |
| High | 20.9% of 369 | 11.5% of 581 | 10.7% of 364 | 7.2% of 694 |
How to read these figures
The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.
This is on every Musselburgh racecard
Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.