Draw Bias · Right-handed · Turf

Leicester draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Leicester, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: High draws have cost 1.13L per run over 7f to 8f, across 1,077 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Leicester together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.40L	2,495
Low-middle	+0.32L	2,506
Middle	+0.12L	2,574
Middle-high	-0.27L	2,508
High	-0.59L	2,497

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.51L	765
Low-middle	+0.32L	781
Middle	+0.25L	784
Middle-high	-0.10L	777
High	-0.98L	767

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.24L	321
Low-middle	+0.46L	326
Middle	+0.38L	327
Middle-high	+0.12L	324
High	-1.22L	321

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.77L	340
Low-middle	+0.16L	348
Middle	+0.13L	350
Middle-high	-0.22L	347
High	-0.83L	341

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.48L	104
Low-middle	+0.43L	107
Middle	+0.22L	107
Middle-high	-0.41L	106
High	-0.72L	105

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.26L	154
Low-middle	+0.06L	227
Middle	+0.60L	204
Middle-high	+0.21L	225
High	-0.93L	155

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.70L	427
Low-middle	+0.46L	357
Middle	+0.18L	408
Middle-high	-0.04L	355
High	-1.21L	427

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.78L	167
Low-middle	+0.30L	181
Middle	+0.21L	154
Middle-high	-0.86L	181
High	-0.36L	167

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.60L	1,079
Low-middle	+0.69L	1,061
Middle	+0.33L	1,082
Middle-high	-0.48L	1,065
High	-1.13L	1,077

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.09L	418
Low-middle	+0.78L	405
Middle	+0.21L	436
Middle-high	-0.36L	406
High	-0.72L	417

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.75L	490
Low-middle	+0.60L	485
Middle	+0.32L	473
Middle-high	-0.35L	489
High	-1.30L	488

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.44L	171
Low-middle	+0.74L	171
Middle	+0.65L	173
Middle-high	-1.17L	170
High	-1.67L	172

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.48L	174
Low-middle	+0.04L	239
Middle	-0.50L	240
Middle-high	-0.16L	238
High	-0.62L	173

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.47L	584
Low-middle	+0.69L	492
Middle	+0.67L	542
Middle-high	-0.56L	495
High	-1.20L	586

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.44L	271
Low-middle	+0.80L	274
Middle	+0.65L	244
Middle-high	-0.60L	276
High	-1.24L	268

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.15L	409
Low-middle	-0.01L	414
Middle	-0.60L	443
Middle-high	+0.08L	417
High	+0.73L	409

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.45L	158
Low-middle	+0.91L	159
Middle	-0.74L	172
Middle-high	-0.83L	161
High	+1.17L	159

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.09L	201
Low-middle	-0.43L	204
Middle	-0.06L	214
Middle-high	+0.24L	204
High	+0.16L	201

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+0.54L	127
Middle	-1.09L	132
Middle-high	-0.97L	128

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.63L	222
Low-middle	-0.87L	186
Middle	+0.09L	221
Middle-high	+0.68L	188
High	-0.56L	221

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.13L	242
Low-middle	-0.65L	250
Middle	+0.12L	265
Middle-high	-0.43L	249
High	+0.85L	244

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	-0.10L	100
Middle-high	+0.58L	100

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.03L	113
Low-middle	-0.43L	104
Middle	+0.19L	124
Middle-high	-1.29L	103
High	+0.33L	113

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	-0.39L	111
Middle	-1.82L	113
Middle-high	+1.00L	111

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.60L	114
Middle	+1.29L	108
High	+0.61L	116

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Leicester. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	18.9% of 402	12.0% of 940	10.6% of 385	7.5% of 702
Low-middle	18.7% of 439	11.4% of 883	9.9% of 343	9.3% of 788
Middle	21.1% of 422	11.5% of 860	11.7% of 367	9.0% of 840
Middle-high	17.8% of 404	12.0% of 789	7.0% of 359	6.5% of 878
High	22.8% of 356	11.0% of 779	9.3% of 289	6.8% of 973

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Leicester racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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