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Draw Bias · Right-handed · Polytrack and Turf

Kempton draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Kempton, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: High draws have cost 2.64L per run over 16f to 19f, across 534 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Kempton together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.75L10,032
Low-middle+0.51L10,073
Middle+0.08L9,882
Middle-high-0.31L10,056
High-1.03L10,038

Over 5f to 6f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.90L1,948
Low-middle+0.57L2,062
Middle-0.11L2,054
Middle-high-0.48L2,059
High-0.89L1,947

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.78L337
Low-middle+0.68L358
Middle-0.17L363
Middle-high-0.51L357
High-0.78L338

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.93L1,611
Low-middle+0.55L1,704
Middle-0.09L1,691
Middle-high-0.47L1,702
High-0.92L1,609

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.46L189
Low-middle+0.57L282
Middle-0.14L244
Middle-high-0.59L282
High-0.25L189

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.89L1,441
Low-middle+0.50L1,303
Middle-0.14L1,493
Middle-high-0.46L1,301
High-0.78L1,442

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.24L318
Low-middle+0.76L477
Middle+0.08L317
Middle-high-0.47L476
High-1.78L316

Over 7f to 8f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.56L5,404
Low-middle+0.52L5,346
Middle+0.14L5,198
Middle-high-0.27L5,336
High-0.95L5,416

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.28L767
Low-middle+0.46L739
Middle+0.14L733
Middle-high-0.08L736
High-0.79L765

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.61L4,637
Low-middle+0.53L4,607
Middle+0.14L4,465
Middle-high-0.30L4,600
High-0.97L4,651

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.26L312
Low-middle+0.14L461
Middle+0.38L407
Middle-high-0.12L460
High-0.78L312

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.38L2,398
Low-middle+0.54L2,172
Middle+0.10L2,371
Middle-high-0.03L2,167
High-0.94L2,408

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.77L2,688
Low-middle+0.57L2,707
Middle+0.13L2,412
Middle-high-0.47L2,703
High-0.99L2,690

Over 9f to 11f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.75L1,003
Low-middle+0.59L997
Middle-0.40L994
Middle-high-0.21L995
High-0.73L1,002

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.77L212
Low-middle+0.17L210
Middle-0.50L210
Middle-high-0.63L208
High+0.18L210

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.75L791
Low-middle+0.70L787
Middle-0.37L784
Middle-high-0.10L787
High-0.98L792

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.11L107
Low-middle+1.08L156
Middle-0.16L143
Middle-high-1.17L156
High+0.24L108

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.49L416
Low-middle+0.81L369
Middle-0.24L422
Middle-high-0.78L366
High-0.28L416

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.05L477
Low-middle+0.28L469
Middle-0.52L425
Middle-high+0.57L470
High-1.43L475

Over 12f to 15f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.94L1,137
Low-middle+0.04L1,138
Middle+0.51L1,110
Middle-high-0.31L1,136
High-1.16L1,139

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.68L167
Low-middle+0.94L161
Middle+0.17L166
Middle-high-0.31L159
High-0.10L167

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.21L970
Low-middle-0.11L977
Middle+0.57L944
Middle-high-0.31L977
High-1.35L972

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.58L131
Low-middle+0.33L198
Middle-0.06L170
Middle-high+0.38L198
High-1.57L132

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.71L512
Low-middle+0.59L438
Middle+0.70L500
Middle-high-0.20L435
High-1.72L513

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.27L494
Low-middle-0.56L502
Middle+0.52L440
Middle-high-0.67L503
High-0.47L494

Over 16f to 19f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.67L540
Low-middle+0.94L530
Middle+0.25L526
Middle-high-0.23L530
High-2.64L534

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.71L442
Low-middle+1.25L433
Middle+0.32L431
Middle-high-0.35L434
High-2.93L438

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-middle+0.18L121
Middle+1.01L111
Middle-high+0.16L122

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.84L288
Low-middle+0.83L244
Middle-0.08L266
Middle-high-0.44L244
High-2.11L286

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.62L167
Low-middle+1.65L165
Middle+0.28L149
Middle-high-0.20L164
High-3.38L163

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Kempton. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

DrawLedProminentMidfieldHeld up
Low18.4% of 1,38913.0% of 2,81711.0% of 2,9066.3% of 2,650
Low-middle18.4% of 1,41113.0% of 2,46711.1% of 2,8636.8% of 3,029
Middle17.5% of 1,30713.0% of 2,3369.6% of 2,4776.5% of 3,436
Middle-high15.2% of 1,33211.9% of 2,2799.0% of 2,1225.3% of 3,989
High16.9% of 1,33110.3% of 2,1836.1% of 1,6335.3% of 4,457

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Kempton racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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