RatingTheRaces
RatingsLog inFree Trial
Draw Bias · Right-handed · Polytrack and Turf

Kempton draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Kempton, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: High draws have cost 2.59L per run over 16f to 19f, across 543 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Kempton together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.77L10,224
Low-middle+0.50L10,259
Middle+0.09L10,072
Middle-high-0.31L10,242
High-1.05L10,232

Over 5f to 6f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.93L1,987
Low-middle+0.57L2,101
Middle-0.10L2,100
Middle-high-0.46L2,098
High-0.93L1,986

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.91L376
Low-middle+0.63L397
Middle-0.14L409
Middle-high-0.39L396
High-1.00L377

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.93L1,611
Low-middle+0.55L1,704
Middle-0.09L1,691
Middle-high-0.47L1,702
High-0.92L1,609

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.46L192
Low-middle+0.53L286
Middle-0.10L249
Middle-high-0.60L286
High-0.22L192

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.90L1,471
Low-middle+0.50L1,329
Middle-0.13L1,528
Middle-high-0.43L1,327
High-0.83L1,472

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.30L324
Low-middle+0.77L486
Middle+0.02L323
Middle-high-0.46L485
High-1.81L322

Over 7f to 8f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.58L5,519
Low-middle+0.51L5,454
Middle+0.14L5,311
Middle-high-0.28L5,444
High-0.95L5,533

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.46L882
Low-middle+0.40L847
Middle+0.16L846
Middle-high-0.20L844
High-0.80L882

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.61L4,637
Low-middle+0.53L4,607
Middle+0.14L4,465
Middle-high-0.30L4,600
High-0.97L4,651

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.31L317
Low-middle+0.17L469
Middle+0.38L413
Middle-high-0.18L468
High-0.81L317

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.39L2,460
Low-middle+0.48L2,230
Middle+0.14L2,435
Middle-high-0.04L2,225
High-0.92L2,472

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.80L2,736
Low-middle+0.59L2,749
Middle+0.10L2,455
Middle-high-0.48L2,745
High-0.99L2,738

Over 9f to 11f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.75L1,025
Low-middle+0.57L1,017
Middle-0.35L1,012
Middle-high-0.21L1,015
High-0.76L1,024

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.77L234
Low-middle+0.13L230
Middle-0.29L228
Middle-high-0.59L228
High-0.04L232

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.75L791
Low-middle+0.70L787
Middle-0.37L784
Middle-high-0.10L787
High-0.98L792

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.11L107
Low-middle+1.08L156
Middle-0.16L143
Middle-high-1.17L156
High+0.24L108

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.49L430
Low-middle+0.77L381
Middle-0.20L433
Middle-high-0.71L378
High-0.34L430

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.05L485
Low-middle+0.28L477
Middle-0.45L432
Middle-high+0.52L478
High-1.44L483

Over 12f to 15f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.97L1,144
Low-middle+0.06L1,147
Middle+0.50L1,117
Middle-high-0.27L1,145
High-1.24L1,146

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.37L174
Low-middle+1.02L170
Middle+0.07L173
Middle-high-0.03L168
High-0.67L174

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.21L970
Low-middle-0.11L977
Middle+0.57L944
Middle-high-0.31L977
High-1.35L972

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.73L134
Low-middle+0.49L203
Middle-0.12L174
Middle-high+0.52L203
High-2.08L135

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.75L516
Low-middle+0.56L442
Middle+0.69L503
Middle-high-0.17L439
High-1.76L517

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.27L494
Low-middle-0.56L502
Middle+0.52L440
Middle-high-0.67L503
High-0.47L494

Over 16f to 19f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.61L549
Low-middle+0.87L540
Middle+0.32L532
Middle-high-0.22L540
High-2.59L543

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.20L107
Low-middle-0.68L107
Middle+0.31L101
Middle-high+0.31L106
High-1.15L105

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.71L442
Low-middle+1.25L433
Middle+0.32L431
Middle-high-0.35L434
High-2.93L438

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-middle+0.18L121
Middle+1.01L111
Middle-high+0.16L122

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.75L292
Low-middle+0.63L248
Middle-0.02L268
Middle-high-0.46L248
High-1.89L290

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.58L172
Low-middle+1.70L171
Middle+0.41L153
Middle-high-0.13L170
High-3.59L168

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Kempton. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

DrawLedProminentMidfieldHeld up
Low18.6% of 1,41013.2% of 2,85410.9% of 2,9966.2% of 2,694
Low-middle18.2% of 1,43513.0% of 2,50111.3% of 2,9426.7% of 3,077
Middle17.5% of 1,33412.9% of 2,3769.9% of 2,5466.5% of 3,490
Middle-high15.2% of 1,35811.9% of 2,3158.8% of 2,1825.3% of 4,053
High16.9% of 1,35910.3% of 2,2136.1% of 1,6775.2% of 4,547

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Kempton racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

Start the free trial →Today’s racecards →