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Draw Bias · Right-handed · Polytrack and Turf

Kempton draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Kempton, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: High draws have cost 2.64L per run over 16f to 19f, across 534 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Kempton together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.76L10,120
Low-middle+0.50L10,155
Middle+0.08L9,970
Middle-high-0.31L10,138
High-1.04L10,126

Over 5f to 6f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.91L1,968
Low-middle+0.58L2,081
Middle-0.10L2,078
Middle-high-0.47L2,078
High-0.92L1,967

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.83L357
Low-middle+0.69L377
Middle-0.12L387
Middle-high-0.47L376
High-0.92L358

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.93L1,611
Low-middle+0.55L1,704
Middle-0.09L1,691
Middle-high-0.47L1,702
High-0.92L1,609

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.44L191
Low-middle+0.57L284
Middle-0.11L248
Middle-high-0.60L284
High-0.25L191

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.90L1,457
Low-middle+0.50L1,317
Middle-0.13L1,511
Middle-high-0.44L1,315
High-0.82L1,458

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.26L320
Low-middle+0.78L480
Middle+0.05L319
Middle-high-0.47L479
High-1.77L318

Over 7f to 8f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.57L5,456
Low-middle+0.52L5,392
Middle+0.14L5,249
Middle-high-0.28L5,382
High-0.94L5,468

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.33L819
Low-middle+0.44L785
Middle+0.12L784
Middle-high-0.14L782
High-0.73L817

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.61L4,637
Low-middle+0.53L4,607
Middle+0.14L4,465
Middle-high-0.30L4,600
High-0.97L4,651

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.27L314
Low-middle+0.15L464
Middle+0.36L410
Middle-high-0.15L463
High-0.74L314

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.37L2,424
Low-middle+0.52L2,197
Middle+0.12L2,397
Middle-high-0.03L2,192
High-0.92L2,434

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.78L2,712
Low-middle+0.58L2,725
Middle+0.11L2,434
Middle-high-0.47L2,721
High-0.98L2,714

Over 9f to 11f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.77L1,016
Low-middle+0.57L1,010
Middle-0.36L1,004
Middle-high-0.23L1,008
High-0.75L1,015

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.83L225
Low-middle+0.11L223
Middle-0.35L220
Middle-high-0.67L221
High+0.06L223

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.75L791
Low-middle+0.70L787
Middle-0.37L784
Middle-high-0.10L787
High-0.98L792

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.11L107
Low-middle+1.08L156
Middle-0.16L143
Middle-high-1.17L156
High+0.24L108

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.52L424
Low-middle+0.77L376
Middle-0.20L428
Middle-high-0.75L373
High-0.34L424

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.05L482
Low-middle+0.28L475
Middle-0.48L429
Middle-high+0.51L476
High-1.41L480

Over 12f to 15f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.97L1,140
Low-middle+0.04L1,142
Middle+0.49L1,113
Middle-high-0.28L1,140
High-1.21L1,142

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.41L170
Low-middle+0.95L165
Middle+0.02L169
Middle-high-0.11L163
High-0.43L170

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.21L970
Low-middle-0.11L977
Middle+0.57L944
Middle-high-0.31L977
High-1.35L972

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.78L132
Low-middle+0.48L200
Middle-0.19L171
Middle-high+0.46L200
High-1.94L133

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.74L514
Low-middle+0.53L440
Middle+0.70L502
Middle-high-0.17L437
High-1.73L515

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.27L494
Low-middle-0.56L502
Middle+0.52L440
Middle-high-0.67L503
High-0.47L494

Over 16f to 19f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.67L540
Low-middle+0.94L530
Middle+0.25L526
Middle-high-0.23L530
High-2.64L534

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.71L442
Low-middle+1.25L433
Middle+0.32L431
Middle-high-0.35L434
High-2.93L438

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-middle+0.18L121
Middle+1.01L111
Middle-high+0.16L122

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.84L288
Low-middle+0.83L244
Middle-0.08L266
Middle-high-0.44L244
High-2.11L286

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.62L167
Low-middle+1.65L165
Middle+0.28L149
Middle-high-0.20L164
High-3.38L163

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Kempton. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

DrawLedProminentMidfieldHeld up
Low18.5% of 1,40213.2% of 2,83610.9% of 2,9406.3% of 2,672
Low-middle18.3% of 1,42213.0% of 2,48611.1% of 2,8966.8% of 3,048
Middle17.6% of 1,32013.0% of 2,3599.7% of 2,5076.5% of 3,458
Middle-high15.2% of 1,34611.9% of 2,2998.9% of 2,1425.3% of 4,017
High17.0% of 1,33910.2% of 2,2006.2% of 1,6545.2% of 4,499

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Kempton racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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