Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Haydock draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Haydock, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Low draws have been worth +1.42L per run over 12f to 15f, across 468 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Haydock together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.35L	2,893
Low-middle	+0.15L	2,975
Middle	-0.05L	3,065
Middle-high	-0.09L	2,971
High	-0.35L	2,899

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.21L	930
Low-middle	+0.02L	957
Middle	+0.22L	974
Middle-high	+0.10L	958
High	-0.15L	932

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.73L	228
Low-middle	-0.26L	234
Middle	+0.18L	244
Middle-high	+0.41L	234
High	+0.38L	229

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.13L	446
Low-middle	+0.15L	456
Middle	+0.39L	465
Middle-high	-0.16L	457
High	-0.53L	447

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.34L	256
Low-middle	+0.06L	267
Middle	-0.05L	265
Middle-high	+0.28L	267
High	+0.04L	256

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.01L	137
Low-middle	-0.31L	201
Middle	+0.24L	185
Middle-high	+0.30L	203
High	-0.32L	137

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.27L	497
Low-middle	+0.30L	422
Middle	+0.51L	496
Middle-high	-0.35L	422
High	-0.19L	500

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.16L	243
Low-middle	+0.05L	272
Middle	-0.50L	229
Middle-high	+0.47L	271
High	+0.06L	241

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.50L	1,115
Low-middle	+0.47L	1,151
Middle	-0.35L	1,170
Middle-high	-0.21L	1,145
High	-0.40L	1,117

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.22L	257
Low-middle	+0.50L	261
Middle	-0.02L	282
Middle-high	-0.79L	258
High	-0.91L	259

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.73L	560
Low-middle	+0.58L	579
Middle	-0.83L	576
Middle-high	-0.10L	575
High	-0.37L	560

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.53L	298
Low-middle	+0.25L	311
Middle	+0.24L	312
Middle-high	+0.06L	312
High	-0.04L	298

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.70L	249
Low-middle	-0.13L	339
Middle	+0.10L	345
Middle-high	-0.12L	336
High	-0.50L	248

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.50L	658
Low-middle	+0.87L	584
Middle	-0.54L	625
Middle-high	-0.32L	579
High	-0.48L	658

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.23L	199
Low-middle	+0.26L	218
Middle	-0.59L	189
Middle-high	+0.21L	220
High	-0.18L	202

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.38L	330
Low-middle	+0.06L	328
Middle	-0.19L	371
Middle-high	+0.87L	329
High	-0.33L	332

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Middle	+0.19L	117

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.97L	161
Low-middle	+0.94L	164
Middle	-0.17L	172
Middle-high	+0.39L	165
High	-0.20L	161

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	-1.02L	109
Middle	+0.48L	116
Middle-high	+0.93L	110

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.65L	192
Low-middle	+0.51L	161
Middle	+0.02L	202
Middle-high	+0.41L	161
High	-0.14L	194

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.42L	468
Low-middle	-0.01L	489
Middle	-0.14L	496
Middle-high	-0.80L	489
High	-0.42L	468

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.92L	101
Low-middle	+0.50L	107
Middle	-0.56L	124
Middle-high	-0.89L	107
High	-0.83L	101

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.68L	226
Low-middle	-0.99L	228
Middle	+0.19L	228
Middle-high	-0.69L	228
High	-0.17L	228

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.63L	141
Low-middle	+1.08L	154
Middle	-0.31L	144
Middle-high	-0.89L	154
High	-0.53L	139

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.41L	128
Low-middle	+0.20L	174
Middle	+1.28L	176
Middle-high	-0.89L	174
High	-1.21L	129

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.85L	221
Low-middle	-0.05L	184
Middle	-1.51L	206
Middle-high	-0.29L	185
High	-0.16L	220

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Haydock. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	16.1% of 483	9.6% of 970	9.7% of 662	8.7% of 751
Low-middle	17.8% of 478	12.0% of 894	11.5% of 703	10.9% of 860
Middle	15.7% of 478	12.8% of 868	10.7% of 707	10.5% of 976
Middle-high	17.1% of 386	11.7% of 820	10.0% of 581	8.1% of 1,146
High	17.1% of 386	11.4% of 830	11.4% of 483	8.3% of 1,150

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Haydock racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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