Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Haydock draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Haydock, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Low draws have been worth +1.41L per run over 12f to 15f, across 469 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Haydock together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.35L	2,907
Low-middle	+0.16L	2,989
Middle	-0.05L	3,077
Middle-high	-0.10L	2,985
High	-0.36L	2,913

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.22L	936
Low-middle	+0.02L	963
Middle	+0.23L	978
Middle-high	+0.10L	964
High	-0.14L	938

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.73L	228
Low-middle	-0.26L	234
Middle	+0.18L	244
Middle-high	+0.41L	234
High	+0.38L	229

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.13L	446
Low-middle	+0.15L	456
Middle	+0.39L	465
Middle-high	-0.16L	457
High	-0.53L	447

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.38L	262
Low-middle	+0.04L	273
Middle	-0.00L	269
Middle-high	+0.26L	273
High	+0.07L	262

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.01L	137
Low-middle	-0.31L	201
Middle	+0.24L	185
Middle-high	+0.30L	203
High	-0.32L	137

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.27L	497
Low-middle	+0.30L	422
Middle	+0.51L	496
Middle-high	-0.35L	422
High	-0.19L	500

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.21L	249
Low-middle	+0.03L	278
Middle	-0.44L	233
Middle-high	+0.44L	277
High	+0.09L	247

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.52L	1,122
Low-middle	+0.52L	1,158
Middle	-0.37L	1,177
Middle-high	-0.23L	1,152
High	-0.44L	1,124

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.22L	257
Low-middle	+0.50L	261
Middle	-0.02L	282
Middle-high	-0.79L	258
High	-0.91L	259

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.73L	560
Low-middle	+0.58L	579
Middle	-0.83L	576
Middle-high	-0.10L	575
High	-0.37L	560

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.43L	305
Low-middle	+0.42L	318
Middle	+0.14L	319
Middle-high	+0.01L	319
High	-0.17L	305

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.74L	250
Low-middle	-0.17L	340
Middle	+0.07L	347
Middle-high	-0.10L	337
High	-0.48L	249

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.52L	664
Low-middle	+0.97L	590
Middle	-0.57L	630
Middle-high	-0.35L	585
High	-0.54L	664

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.23L	199
Low-middle	+0.26L	218
Middle	-0.59L	189
Middle-high	+0.21L	220
High	-0.18L	202

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.38L	330
Low-middle	+0.06L	328
Middle	-0.19L	371
Middle-high	+0.87L	329
High	-0.33L	332

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Middle	+0.19L	117

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.97L	161
Low-middle	+0.94L	164
Middle	-0.17L	172
Middle-high	+0.39L	165
High	-0.20L	161

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	-1.02L	109
Middle	+0.48L	116
Middle-high	+0.93L	110

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.65L	192
Low-middle	+0.51L	161
Middle	+0.02L	202
Middle-high	+0.41L	161
High	-0.14L	194

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.41L	469
Low-middle	-0.01L	490
Middle	-0.12L	497
Middle-high	-0.81L	490
High	-0.43L	469

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.92L	101
Low-middle	+0.50L	107
Middle	-0.56L	124
Middle-high	-0.89L	107
High	-0.83L	101

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.68L	226
Low-middle	-0.99L	228
Middle	+0.19L	228
Middle-high	-0.69L	228
High	-0.17L	228

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.60L	142
Low-middle	+1.09L	155
Middle	-0.22L	145
Middle-high	-0.93L	155
High	-0.56L	140

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.38L	129
Low-middle	+0.21L	175
Middle	+1.34L	177
Middle-high	-0.93L	175
High	-1.24L	130

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.85L	221
Low-middle	-0.05L	184
Middle	-1.51L	206
Middle-high	-0.29L	185
High	-0.16L	220

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Haydock. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	16.1% of 485	9.7% of 976	9.8% of 665	8.6% of 754
Low-middle	17.9% of 480	11.9% of 897	11.5% of 707	10.9% of 865
Middle	15.9% of 479	12.7% of 871	10.7% of 711	10.4% of 980
Middle-high	16.9% of 391	11.7% of 821	9.9% of 583	8.2% of 1,152
High	17.1% of 387	11.4% of 834	11.3% of 487	8.4% of 1,155

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Haydock racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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