Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Haydock draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Haydock, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Low draws have been worth +1.29L per run over 12f to 15f, across 463 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Haydock together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.33L	2,870
Low-middle	+0.16L	2,950
Middle	-0.06L	3,043
Middle-high	-0.10L	2,946
High	-0.33L	2,877

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.20L	926
Low-middle	+0.04L	953
Middle	+0.22L	969
Middle-high	+0.09L	954
High	-0.16L	928

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.73L	228
Low-middle	-0.26L	234
Middle	+0.18L	244
Middle-high	+0.41L	234
High	+0.38L	229

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.13L	446
Low-middle	+0.15L	456
Middle	+0.39L	465
Middle-high	-0.16L	457
High	-0.53L	447

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.32L	252
Low-middle	+0.11L	263
Middle	-0.06L	260
Middle-high	+0.25L	263
High	+0.01L	252

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.01L	137
Low-middle	-0.31L	201
Middle	+0.24L	185
Middle-high	+0.30L	203
High	-0.32L	137

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.26L	493
Low-middle	+0.33L	418
Middle	+0.51L	491
Middle-high	-0.38L	418
High	-0.21L	496

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.16L	243
Low-middle	+0.05L	272
Middle	-0.50L	229
Middle-high	+0.47L	271
High	+0.06L	241

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.50L	1,102
Low-middle	+0.45L	1,137
Middle	-0.34L	1,157
Middle-high	-0.22L	1,131
High	-0.39L	1,104

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.22L	257
Low-middle	+0.50L	261
Middle	-0.02L	282
Middle-high	-0.79L	258
High	-0.91L	259

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.72L	559
Low-middle	+0.59L	577
Middle	-0.84L	575
Middle-high	-0.10L	573
High	-0.37L	559

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.57L	286
Low-middle	+0.15L	299
Middle	+0.33L	300
Middle-high	+0.04L	300
High	+0.03L	286

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.66L	246
Low-middle	-0.12L	334
Middle	+0.16L	341
Middle-high	-0.12L	331
High	-0.55L	245

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.52L	648
Low-middle	+0.82L	575
Middle	-0.55L	616
Middle-high	-0.33L	570
High	-0.44L	648

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.23L	199
Low-middle	+0.26L	218
Middle	-0.59L	189
Middle-high	+0.21L	220
High	-0.18L	202

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.37L	329
Low-middle	+0.01L	326
Middle	-0.20L	370
Middle-high	+0.90L	327
High	-0.32L	331

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Middle	+0.19L	117

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.95L	160
Low-middle	+0.85L	162
Middle	-0.17L	171
Middle-high	+0.45L	163
High	-0.18L	160

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	-1.19L	107
Middle	+0.49L	115
Middle-high	+1.03L	108

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.65L	192
Low-middle	+0.51L	161
Middle	+0.02L	202
Middle-high	+0.41L	161
High	-0.14L	194

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.29L	463
Low-middle	+0.15L	484
Middle	-0.25L	493
Middle-high	-0.81L	484
High	-0.34L	464

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.92L	101
Low-middle	+0.50L	107
Middle	-0.56L	124
Middle-high	-0.89L	107
High	-0.83L	101

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.68L	226
Low-middle	-0.99L	228
Middle	+0.19L	228
Middle-high	-0.69L	228
High	-0.17L	228

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.17L	136
Low-middle	+1.65L	149
Middle	-0.68L	141
Middle-high	-0.94L	149
High	-0.25L	135

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.37L	127
Low-middle	+0.36L	173
Middle	+1.21L	175
Middle-high	-0.97L	173
High	-1.19L	128

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.61L	217
Low-middle	+0.24L	180
Middle	-1.71L	204
Middle-high	-0.24L	181
High	+0.00L	217

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Haydock. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	16.3% of 480	9.5% of 964	9.3% of 653	8.7% of 747
Low-middle	17.7% of 474	12.0% of 889	11.7% of 695	11.0% of 852
Middle	15.3% of 471	12.7% of 866	10.9% of 699	10.5% of 971
Middle-high	17.1% of 380	11.8% of 817	9.9% of 574	8.2% of 1,137
High	17.1% of 381	11.3% of 825	11.5% of 479	8.4% of 1,141

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Haydock racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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