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Draw Bias · Right-handed · Turf

Gowran Park draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Gowran Park, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Low draws have been worth +1.19L per run over 7f to 8f, across 1,352 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Gowran Park together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.85L2,346
Low-middle+0.34L2,343
Middle-0.15L2,455
Middle-high-0.39L2,347
High-0.64L2,345

Over 7f to 8f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.19L1,352
Low-middle+0.56L1,333
Middle-0.25L1,436
Middle-high-0.72L1,334
High-0.75L1,354

On firm ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.57L154
Low-middle+1.17L153
Middle-0.09L156
Middle-high-1.05L153
High-1.59L155

On good ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.39L706
Low-middle+0.53L693
Middle-0.05L755
Middle-high-0.80L693
High-1.07L706

On soft ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.77L492
Low-middle+0.41L487
Middle-0.59L525
Middle-high-0.52L488
High-0.03L493

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.56L293
Low-middle+0.85L260
Middle-0.51L313
Middle-high-0.32L259
High-1.49L294

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.38L668
Low-middle+0.39L666
Middle-0.56L604
Middle-high-0.79L665
High-0.48L669

Fields of 16+ runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.88L342
Low-middle+0.54L337
Middle+0.18L456
Middle-high-0.83L337
High-0.83L342

Over 9f to 11f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.70L807
Low-middle+0.01L826
Middle+0.01L818
Middle-high+0.03L827
High-0.75L806

On good ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.18L438
Low-middle+0.50L438
Middle-0.10L439
Middle-high-0.02L441
High-1.57L438

On soft ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.45L292
Low-middle-0.42L309
Middle+0.15L303
Middle-high+0.51L307
High+0.20L291

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.41L152
Low-middle-0.40L134
Middle+0.08L157
Middle-high+0.16L134
High-0.28L152

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.54L355
Low-middle+1.15L332
Middle-0.82L311
Middle-high-0.93L333
High-1.04L354

Fields of 16+ runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.37L260
Low-middle-1.46L301
Middle+0.92L303
Middle-high+1.16L301
High-0.35L260

Over 12f to 15f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.13L184
Low-middle+0.44L180
Middle-0.22L197
Middle-high+0.43L182
High+0.51L182

On good ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Middle-1.52L107

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Gowran Park. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

DrawLedProminentMidfieldHeld up
Low18.4% of 40813.4% of 8045.9% of 5442.4% of 501
Low-middle18.3% of 2909.5% of 7505.5% of 6413.9% of 617
Middle22.4% of 27711.6% of 7054.7% of 7212.8% of 727
Middle-high27.6% of 1859.8% of 6134.6% of 7192.8% of 799
High17.3% of 1629.1% of 5956.0% of 6312.7% of 918

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Gowran Park racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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