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Draw Bias · Right-handed · Turf

Gowran Park draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Gowran Park, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Low draws have been worth +1.18L per run over 7f to 8f, across 1,365 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Gowran Park together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.87L2,382
Low-middle+0.35L2,382
Middle-0.22L2,490
Middle-high-0.42L2,386
High-0.57L2,382

Over 7f to 8f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.18L1,365
Low-middle+0.57L1,347
Middle-0.27L1,450
Middle-high-0.72L1,348
High-0.74L1,367

On firm ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.57L154
Low-middle+1.17L153
Middle-0.09L156
Middle-high-1.05L153
High-1.59L155

On good ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.41L708
Low-middle+0.49L696
Middle-0.04L757
Middle-high-0.81L696
High-1.06L708

On soft ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.73L503
Low-middle+0.49L498
Middle-0.64L537
Middle-high-0.50L499
High-0.03L504

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.54L295
Low-middle+0.88L261
Middle-0.50L315
Middle-high-0.31L260
High-1.51L296

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.37L675
Low-middle+0.40L674
Middle-0.57L611
Middle-high-0.80L673
High-0.46L676

Fields of 16+ runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.83L345
Low-middle+0.53L340
Middle+0.16L460
Middle-high-0.78L340
High-0.80L345

Over 9f to 11f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.73L827
Low-middle+0.04L848
Middle-0.12L837
Middle-high-0.07L849
High-0.58L827

On good ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.18L438
Low-middle+0.50L438
Middle-0.10L439
Middle-high-0.02L441
High-1.57L438

On soft ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.31L312
Low-middle-0.29L331
Middle-0.19L322
Middle-high+0.22L329
High+0.58L312

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.45L156
Low-middle-0.94L138
Middle+0.19L160
Middle-high+0.10L138
High+0.09L156

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.61L368
Low-middle+1.48L347
Middle-1.24L323
Middle-high-1.12L348
High-0.87L368

Fields of 16+ runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.44L263
Low-middle-1.52L304
Middle+0.98L307
Middle-high+1.14L304
High-0.27L263

Over 12f to 15f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.95L187
Low-middle+0.32L183
Middle-0.43L199
Middle-high+0.49L185
High+0.62L185

On good ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Middle-1.52L107

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Gowran Park. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

DrawLedProminentMidfieldHeld up
Low18.3% of 41513.3% of 8116.3% of 5542.5% of 514
Low-middle18.8% of 2989.5% of 7585.5% of 6583.9% of 622
Middle22.0% of 28211.6% of 7094.6% of 7342.7% of 740
Middle-high27.0% of 1899.7% of 6214.6% of 7332.7% of 812
High17.5% of 1669.2% of 6006.2% of 6502.7% of 927

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Gowran Park racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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