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Draw Bias · Right-handed · Turf

Gowran Park draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Gowran Park, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Low draws have been worth +1.17L per run over 7f to 8f, across 1,360 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Gowran Park together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.84L2,361
Low-middle+0.39L2,360
Middle-0.19L2,470
Middle-high-0.40L2,364
High-0.63L2,360

Over 7f to 8f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.17L1,360
Low-middle+0.57L1,342
Middle-0.27L1,445
Middle-high-0.72L1,343
High-0.75L1,362

On firm ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.57L154
Low-middle+1.17L153
Middle-0.09L156
Middle-high-1.05L153
High-1.59L155

On good ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.39L706
Low-middle+0.53L693
Middle-0.05L755
Middle-high-0.80L693
High-1.07L706

On soft ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.73L500
Low-middle+0.45L496
Middle-0.62L534
Middle-high-0.50L497
High-0.02L501

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.54L295
Low-middle+0.88L261
Middle-0.50L315
Middle-high-0.31L260
High-1.51L296

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.36L670
Low-middle+0.41L669
Middle-0.57L606
Middle-high-0.79L668
High-0.47L671

Fields of 16+ runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.83L345
Low-middle+0.53L340
Middle+0.16L460
Middle-high-0.78L340
High-0.80L345

Over 9f to 11f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.71L814
Low-middle+0.12L834
Middle-0.08L824
Middle-high-0.02L835
High-0.73L813

On good ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.18L438
Low-middle+0.50L438
Middle-0.10L439
Middle-high-0.02L441
High-1.57L438

On soft ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.41L299
Low-middle-0.12L317
Middle-0.09L309
Middle-high+0.38L315
High+0.23L298

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.22L154
Low-middle-0.40L136
Middle+0.03L159
Middle-high+0.16L136
High-0.04L154

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.63L360
Low-middle+1.40L338
Middle-1.02L315
Middle-high-1.03L339
High-1.09L359

Fields of 16+ runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.37L260
Low-middle-1.46L301
Middle+0.92L303
Middle-high+1.16L301
High-0.35L260

Over 12f to 15f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.13L184
Low-middle+0.44L180
Middle-0.22L197
Middle-high+0.43L182
High+0.51L182

On good ground

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Middle-1.52L107

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Gowran Park. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

DrawLedProminentMidfieldHeld up
Low18.4% of 41313.3% of 8095.9% of 5452.4% of 505
Low-middle18.6% of 2959.6% of 7535.6% of 6483.9% of 619
Middle22.1% of 28111.6% of 7064.7% of 7272.7% of 731
Middle-high27.6% of 1859.7% of 6184.7% of 7252.7% of 805
High17.3% of 1629.1% of 5966.1% of 6372.7% of 926

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Gowran Park racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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