Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Chester draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Chester, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: High draws have cost 2.50L per run over 12f to 15f, across 314 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Chester together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.17L	1,933
Low-middle	+0.91L	1,970
Middle	-0.13L	2,003
Middle-high	-0.61L	1,970
High	-1.33L	1,931

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.37L	581
Low-middle	+0.61L	583
Middle	+0.29L	596
Middle-high	-0.39L	581
High	-1.89L	579

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.40L	446
Low-middle	+0.60L	446
Middle	+0.25L	456
Middle-high	-0.23L	444
High	-2.03L	445

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.46L	109
Low-middle	+0.73L	156
Middle	+0.15L	142
Middle-high	-0.37L	156
High	-2.19L	108

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.29L	386
Low-middle	+0.33L	324
Middle	+0.39L	372
Middle-high	-0.24L	322
High	-1.74L	385

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+1.31L	103
Middle-high	-0.91L	103

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.79L	608
Low-middle	+1.17L	633
Middle	-0.61L	626
Middle-high	-0.91L	631
High	-0.44L	609

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.74L	451
Low-middle	+0.97L	478
Middle	-0.47L	467
Middle-high	-0.84L	478
High	-0.39L	452

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.55L	109
Low-middle	+2.33L	106
Middle	-1.20L	112
Middle-high	-1.68L	106
High	+0.04L	109

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+1.37L	148
Middle	-1.03L	127
Middle-high	-0.87L	149

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.50L	356
Low-middle	+1.19L	312
Middle	-0.62L	350
Middle-high	-0.52L	309
High	-0.48L	355

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.38L	151
Low-middle	+0.91L	170
Middle	+0.03L	145
Middle-high	-1.67L	170
High	-0.55L	153

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.62L	295
Low-middle	+0.76L	298
Middle	-0.89L	309
Middle-high	-0.32L	300
High	-1.13L	296

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.58L	214
Low-middle	+0.91L	221
Middle	-0.31L	221
Middle-high	-0.35L	223
High	-0.83L	214

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+0.09L	100
Middle-high	-0.98L	101

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.48L	187
Low-middle	+1.09L	160
Middle	-0.56L	180
Middle-high	-0.25L	160
High	-0.66L	187

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.21L	313
Low-middle	+0.79L	313
Middle	+0.55L	334
Middle-high	-0.07L	317
High	-2.50L	314

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.67L	228
Low-middle	+0.72L	227
Middle	+0.76L	244
Middle-high	+0.05L	231
High	-3.24L	229

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+1.40L	116
Middle	+0.74L	121
Middle-high	-0.02L	117

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.59L	190
Low-middle	+0.49L	152
Middle	+0.36L	177
Middle-high	+0.34L	155
High	-2.58L	191

Over 16f to 19f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.90L	136
Low-middle	+1.48L	143
Middle	+0.25L	138
Middle-high	-1.96L	141
High	-0.70L	133

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.77L	100
Low-middle	+1.98L	109
Middle	-0.53L	102
Middle-high	+0.84L	109

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Chester. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	23.9% of 431	15.5% of 625	12.3% of 471	5.8% of 378
Low-middle	24.3% of 358	13.5% of 600	11.9% of 477	7.9% of 506
Middle	18.6% of 285	12.5% of 608	8.8% of 457	6.3% of 618
Middle-high	21.2% of 245	9.9% of 497	9.0% of 390	6.1% of 770
High	17.6% of 244	10.9% of 442	8.5% of 282	5.3% of 923

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Chester racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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