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Draw Bias · Left-handed · Polytrack

Chelmsford draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Chelmsford, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Low-middle draws have been worth +1.56L per run over 16f to 19f, across 168 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Chelmsford together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.78L7,263
Low-middle+0.46L7,348
Middle+0.07L7,388
Middle-high-0.52L7,336
High-0.80L7,251

Over 5f to 6f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.78L2,133
Low-middle+0.17L2,179
Middle-0.01L2,163
Middle-high-0.23L2,175
High-0.72L2,129

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.79L2,049
Low-middle+0.13L2,089
Middle+0.01L2,083
Middle-high-0.23L2,085
High-0.70L2,045

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.91L410
Low-middle+0.09L602
Middle-0.23L554
Middle-high-0.29L602
High-0.31L408

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.67L1,371
Low-middle+0.39L1,181
Middle+0.01L1,279
Middle-high-0.21L1,177
High-0.83L1,370

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.09L352
Low-middle-0.37L396
Middle+0.30L330
Middle-high-0.19L396
High-0.74L351

Over 7f to 8f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.79L3,062
Low-middle+0.58L3,086
Middle-0.11L3,086
Middle-high-0.57L3,079
High-0.69L3,061

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.83L2,939
Low-middle+0.62L2,966
Middle-0.10L2,967
Middle-high-0.63L2,959
High-0.72L2,939

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.12L123
Low-middle-0.47L120
Middle-0.32L119
Middle-high+0.89L120
High+0.02L122

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.63L429
Low-middle+0.17L622
Middle-0.13L571
Middle-high-0.68L616
High+0.28L430

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.73L1,658
Low-middle+0.56L1,444
Middle-0.35L1,593
Middle-high-0.07L1,442
High-0.82L1,653

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.04L934
Low-middle+0.85L978
Middle+0.17L866
Middle-high-1.19L979
High-0.84L937

Over 9f to 11f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.86L1,430
Low-middle+0.56L1,425
Middle+0.48L1,460
Middle-high-0.58L1,424
High-1.33L1,430

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.87L1,390
Low-middle+0.55L1,381
Middle+0.45L1,418
Middle-high-0.61L1,381
High-1.27L1,390

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.60L254
Low-middle+0.75L361
Middle+0.34L339
Middle-high-0.74L361
High-1.06L254

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.64L732
Low-middle+0.36L614
Middle+0.95L705
Middle-high-0.19L615
High-1.69L735

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.29L429
Low-middle+0.74L435
Middle-0.16L396
Middle-high-1.04L433
High-0.85L426

Over 12f to 15f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.08L477
Low-middle+0.37L490
Middle-0.10L498
Middle-high-1.06L489
High-0.27L473

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.15L457
Low-middle+0.30L472
Middle-0.09L476
Middle-high-1.16L471
High-0.19L454

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.67L146
Low-middle+0.49L206
Middle-0.09L194
Middle-high-0.51L205
High-0.51L145

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.84L257
Low-middle-0.24L207
Middle+0.02L238
Middle-high-2.02L207
High+0.97L254

Over 16f to 19f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.99L161
Low-middle+1.56L168
Middle+1.02L181
Middle-high-1.20L169
High-0.54L158

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.19L158
Low-middle+1.42L165
Middle+0.90L177
Middle-high-0.94L166
High-0.32L155

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-middle+1.65L100
Middle+0.31L102
Middle-high+0.24L101

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Chelmsford. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

DrawLedProminentMidfieldHeld up
Low20.8% of 1,26713.2% of 2,00913.3% of 2,2677.8% of 1,437
Low-middle19.0% of 1,13313.7% of 1,82311.2% of 2,3406.5% of 1,780
Middle19.2% of 1,09014.8% of 1,7589.2% of 2,2156.1% of 2,044
Middle-high19.0% of 1,08711.6% of 1,7138.6% of 1,9146.1% of 2,321
High20.0% of 97510.5% of 1,7198.7% of 1,7176.0% of 2,516

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Chelmsford racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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