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Draw Bias · Left-handed · Polytrack

Chelmsford draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Chelmsford, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Low-middle draws have been worth +1.56L per run over 16f to 19f, across 168 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Chelmsford together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.78L7,278
Low-middle+0.46L7,363
Middle+0.07L7,403
Middle-high-0.51L7,351
High-0.80L7,266

Over 5f to 6f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.78L2,138
Low-middle+0.17L2,186
Middle-0.01L2,167
Middle-high-0.22L2,182
High-0.72L2,134

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.78L2,054
Low-middle+0.13L2,096
Middle+0.01L2,087
Middle-high-0.23L2,092
High-0.70L2,050

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.90L411
Low-middle+0.10L604
Middle-0.22L555
Middle-high-0.29L604
High-0.32L409

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.67L1,373
Low-middle+0.39L1,183
Middle+0.01L1,280
Middle-high-0.21L1,179
High-0.83L1,372

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.08L354
Low-middle-0.38L399
Middle+0.30L332
Middle-high-0.17L399
High-0.74L353

Over 7f to 8f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.80L3,069
Low-middle+0.58L3,092
Middle-0.11L3,093
Middle-high-0.57L3,085
High-0.71L3,068

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.84L2,946
Low-middle+0.62L2,972
Middle-0.10L2,974
Middle-high-0.62L2,965
High-0.74L2,946

On a slow surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.12L123
Low-middle-0.47L120
Middle-0.32L119
Middle-high+0.89L120
High+0.02L122

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.63L429
Low-middle+0.17L622
Middle-0.13L571
Middle-high-0.68L616
High+0.28L430

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.72L1,660
Low-middle+0.56L1,445
Middle-0.35L1,595
Middle-high-0.06L1,443
High-0.82L1,655

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.07L939
Low-middle+0.83L983
Middle+0.18L871
Middle-high-1.16L984
High-0.88L942

Over 9f to 11f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.86L1,432
Low-middle+0.56L1,426
Middle+0.48L1,462
Middle-high-0.58L1,425
High-1.33L1,432

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.86L1,392
Low-middle+0.55L1,382
Middle+0.45L1,420
Middle-high-0.60L1,382
High-1.27L1,392

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.60L254
Low-middle+0.75L361
Middle+0.34L339
Middle-high-0.74L361
High-1.06L254

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.63L734
Low-middle+0.37L615
Middle+0.95L707
Middle-high-0.19L616
High-1.69L737

Fields of 12-15 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.29L429
Low-middle+0.74L435
Middle-0.16L396
Middle-high-1.04L433
High-0.85L426

Over 12f to 15f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.09L478
Low-middle+0.30L491
Middle-0.08L500
Middle-high-1.04L490
High-0.26L474

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+1.16L458
Low-middle+0.24L473
Middle-0.06L478
Middle-high-1.14L472
High-0.17L455

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.69L147
Low-middle+0.34L207
Middle-0.03L196
Middle-high-0.47L206
High-0.46L146

Fields of 8-11 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low+0.84L257
Low-middle-0.24L207
Middle+0.02L238
Middle-high-2.02L207
High+0.97L254

Over 16f to 19f

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-0.99L161
Low-middle+1.56L168
Middle+1.02L181
Middle-high-1.20L169
High-0.54L158

On a standard surface

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-1.19L158
Low-middle+1.42L165
Middle+0.90L177
Middle-high-0.94L166
High-0.32L155

Fields of 2-7 runners

DrawLengths vs field averageRuns
Low-middle+1.65L100
Middle+0.31L102
Middle-high+0.24L101

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Chelmsford. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

DrawLedProminentMidfieldHeld up
Low20.8% of 1,26713.2% of 2,01213.3% of 2,2777.8% of 1,439
Low-middle19.0% of 1,13613.7% of 1,82411.2% of 2,3456.6% of 1,786
Middle19.1% of 1,09214.8% of 1,7619.1% of 2,2206.1% of 2,049
Middle-high19.1% of 1,08911.6% of 1,7168.6% of 1,9166.2% of 2,329
High20.1% of 97710.5% of 1,7228.6% of 1,7236.0% of 2,520

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Chelmsford racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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