Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Catterick draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Catterick, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: High draws have cost 5.51L per run over 16f to 19f, across 121 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Catterick together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.09L	2,365
Low-middle	-0.07L	2,393
Middle	+0.17L	2,411
Middle-high	+0.39L	2,384
High	-0.59L	2,356

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.41L	1,054
Low-middle	+0.16L	1,077
Middle	-0.23L	1,087
Middle-high	+0.12L	1,070
High	-0.45L	1,049

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.06L	300
Low-middle	+0.30L	298
Middle	-0.27L	303
Middle-high	-0.51L	295
High	-0.59L	298

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.61L	487
Low-middle	+0.17L	493
Middle	-0.49L	501
Middle-high	+0.28L	491
High	-0.56L	484

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.69L	267
Low-middle	-0.02L	286
Middle	+0.26L	283
Middle-high	+0.49L	284
High	-0.10L	267

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.63L	179
Low-middle	+0.34L	261
Middle	-0.38L	238
Middle-high	-0.20L	260
High	-0.34L	178

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.35L	668
Low-middle	+0.25L	573
Middle	-0.14L	652
Middle-high	+0.23L	571
High	-0.63L	665

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.38L	207
Low-middle	-0.26L	243
Middle	-0.35L	197
Middle-high	+0.18L	239
High	+0.05L	206

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.50L	728
Low-middle	-0.20L	722
Middle	-0.17L	726
Middle-high	+0.72L	722
High	+0.16L	725

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.03L	200
Low-middle	+0.46L	196
Middle	-0.86L	205
Middle-high	+0.98L	196
High	-0.49L	200

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.69L	336
Low-middle	-0.00L	334
Middle	+0.13L	333
Middle-high	+0.32L	335
High	+0.25L	333

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.65L	192
Low-middle	-1.20L	192
Middle	+0.05L	188
Middle-high	+1.14L	191
High	+0.67L	192

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	-0.60L	130
Middle	+0.64L	127
Middle-high	+1.31L	130

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.30L	382
Low-middle	-0.24L	336
Middle	-0.69L	375
Middle-high	+0.38L	335
High	+0.26L	379

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.99L	253
Low-middle	+0.06L	256
Middle	+0.24L	224
Middle-high	+0.86L	257
High	-0.16L	253

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.19L	461
Low-middle	-0.07L	466
Middle	+0.58L	471
Middle-high	+0.10L	465
High	-0.81L	461

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.62L	115
Low-middle	+2.49L	111
Middle	-0.10L	117
Middle-high	-2.95L	109
High	-0.13L	114

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.33L	218
Low-middle	-0.22L	221
Middle	+1.73L	222
Middle-high	+0.37L	222
High	-1.58L	218

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.68L	128
Low-middle	-1.95L	134
Middle	-0.74L	132
Middle-high	+2.12L	134
High	-0.10L	129

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+0.17L	122
Middle	-0.53L	113
Middle-high	-0.45L	122

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.20L	231
Low-middle	-1.17L	194
Middle	+0.87L	228
Middle-high	+1.21L	192
High	-0.68L	231

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.38L	144
Low-middle	+1.15L	150
Middle	+1.05L	130
Middle-high	-0.87L	151
High	-1.61L	144

Over 16f to 19f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.56L	122
Low-middle	-1.20L	128
Middle	+4.00L	127
Middle-high	+1.92L	127
High	-5.51L	121

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Catterick. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	20.7% of 434	13.1% of 748	9.3% of 572	4.5% of 576
Low-middle	18.8% of 378	11.6% of 727	10.2% of 586	4.5% of 673
Middle	21.2% of 373	11.4% of 685	9.3% of 560	5.9% of 744
Middle-high	22.1% of 308	12.5% of 738	10.7% of 503	7.5% of 805
High	19.9% of 307	12.4% of 684	9.1% of 452	6.7% of 867

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Catterick racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

Start the free trial →Today’s racecards →