Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Catterick draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Catterick, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: High draws have cost 5.48L per run over 16f to 19f, across 123 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Catterick together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.13L	2,391
Low-middle	-0.05L	2,422
Middle	+0.18L	2,436
Middle-high	+0.35L	2,413
High	-0.62L	2,382

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.42L	1,067
Low-middle	+0.18L	1,090
Middle	-0.23L	1,099
Middle-high	+0.10L	1,083
High	-0.48L	1,062

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.06L	300
Low-middle	+0.30L	298
Middle	-0.27L	303
Middle-high	-0.51L	295
High	-0.59L	298

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.64L	500
Low-middle	+0.22L	506
Middle	-0.48L	513
Middle-high	+0.24L	504
High	-0.62L	497

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.69L	267
Low-middle	-0.02L	286
Middle	+0.26L	283
Middle-high	+0.49L	284
High	-0.10L	267

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.69L	182
Low-middle	+0.38L	265
Middle	-0.34L	243
Middle-high	-0.26L	264
High	-0.42L	181

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.37L	678
Low-middle	+0.27L	582
Middle	-0.16L	659
Middle-high	+0.24L	580
High	-0.65L	675

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.38L	207
Low-middle	-0.26L	243
Middle	-0.35L	197
Middle-high	+0.18L	239
High	+0.05L	206

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.46L	737
Low-middle	-0.21L	733
Middle	-0.12L	735
Middle-high	+0.67L	733
High	+0.11L	734

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.03L	200
Low-middle	+0.46L	196
Middle	-0.86L	205
Middle-high	+0.98L	196
High	-0.49L	200

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.59L	345
Low-middle	-0.03L	345
Middle	+0.23L	342
Middle-high	+0.24L	346
High	+0.15L	342

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.65L	192
Low-middle	-1.20L	192
Middle	+0.05L	188
Middle-high	+1.14L	191
High	+0.67L	192

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	-0.59L	132
Middle	+0.66L	128
Middle-high	+1.15L	132

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.34L	388
Low-middle	-0.25L	342
Middle	-0.61L	381
Middle-high	+0.39L	341
High	+0.14L	385

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.97L	255
Low-middle	+0.06L	259
Middle	+0.26L	226
Middle-high	+0.80L	260
High	-0.14L	255

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.20L	463
Low-middle	-0.08L	469
Middle	+0.60L	474
Middle-high	+0.08L	468
High	-0.81L	463

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.62L	115
Low-middle	+2.49L	111
Middle	-0.10L	117
Middle-high	-2.95L	109
High	-0.13L	114

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.31L	220
Low-middle	-0.25L	224
Middle	+1.76L	225
Middle-high	+0.33L	225
High	-1.57L	220

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.68L	128
Low-middle	-1.95L	134
Middle	-0.74L	132
Middle-high	+2.12L	134
High	-0.10L	129

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+0.11L	125
Middle	-0.42L	116
Middle-high	-0.51L	125

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.20L	231
Low-middle	-1.17L	194
Middle	+0.87L	228
Middle-high	+1.21L	192
High	-0.68L	231

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.38L	144
Low-middle	+1.15L	150
Middle	+1.05L	130
Middle-high	-0.87L	151
High	-1.61L	144

Over 16f to 19f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.85L	124
Low-middle	-0.97L	130
Middle	+3.85L	128
Middle-high	+1.56L	129
High	-5.48L	123

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Catterick. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	20.9% of 440	13.1% of 758	9.2% of 578	4.7% of 580
Low-middle	19.3% of 384	11.5% of 733	10.3% of 602	4.5% of 674
Middle	21.5% of 377	11.2% of 694	9.3% of 567	6.0% of 749
Middle-high	22.2% of 311	12.4% of 744	10.7% of 506	7.3% of 821
High	20.2% of 312	12.3% of 692	9.1% of 453	6.6% of 879

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Catterick racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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