Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Bath draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Bath, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Middle-high draws have been worth +0.99L per run over 12f to 15f, across 444 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Bath together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.15L	2,646
Low-middle	-0.05L	2,683
Middle	+0.04L	2,735
Middle-high	+0.18L	2,678
High	-0.33L	2,652

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.31L	1,216
Low-middle	-0.18L	1,248
Middle	+0.33L	1,249
Middle-high	-0.12L	1,246
High	-0.34L	1,217

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.36L	613
Low-middle	-0.34L	651
Middle	+0.24L	636
Middle-high	-0.11L	651
High	-0.12L	613

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.05L	468
Low-middle	-0.15L	461
Middle	+0.36L	468
Middle-high	+0.06L	459
High	-0.32L	469

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.01L	135
Low-middle	+0.48L	136
Middle	+0.62L	145
Middle-high	-0.76L	136
High	-1.39L	135

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.25L	273
Low-middle	-0.20L	385
Middle	+0.50L	364
Middle-high	-0.12L	386
High	-0.47L	274

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.20L	610
Low-middle	-0.17L	509
Middle	+0.31L	561
Middle-high	-0.02L	506
High	-0.33L	611

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.58L	294
Low-middle	-0.48L	310
Middle	+0.13L	277
Middle-high	-0.06L	310
High	-0.14L	292

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.09L	555
Low-middle	+0.60L	557
Middle	+0.02L	579
Middle-high	+0.04L	559
High	-0.58L	558

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.22L	242
Low-middle	+1.28L	253
Middle	+0.75L	261
Middle-high	-1.01L	253
High	-0.87L	244

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.09L	235
Low-middle	-0.11L	231
Middle	+0.02L	240
Middle-high	+0.94L	231
High	-0.74L	236

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.51L	101
Low-middle	+1.01L	136
Middle	+0.77L	133
Middle-high	-0.94L	136
High	-0.59L	101

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.35L	275
Low-middle	+0.47L	241
Middle	-0.73L	278
Middle-high	+0.14L	241
High	-0.14L	276

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.53L	179
Low-middle	+0.49L	180
Middle	+0.67L	168
Middle-high	+0.64L	182
High	-1.22L	181

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.30L	361
Low-middle	+0.47L	370
Middle	+0.20L	380
Middle-high	-0.34L	369
High	-0.05L	361

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.80L	180
Low-middle	+0.14L	181
Middle	-1.40L	191
Middle-high	+0.72L	180
High	+1.43L	180

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.05L	139
Low-middle	-0.64L	143
Middle	+1.80L	145
Middle-high	+0.12L	143
High	-1.29L	139

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+1.07L	120
Middle	+0.20L	108
Middle-high	-1.42L	120

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.62L	175
Low-middle	-0.61L	149
Middle	-0.31L	182
Middle-high	+0.24L	149
High	+0.02L	175

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.97L	100
Low-middle	+1.35L	101
Middle-high	+0.10L	100
High	-1.60L	100

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.63L	453
Low-middle	-0.50L	449
Middle	-0.65L	458
Middle-high	+0.99L	444
High	-0.44L	456

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.14L	214
Low-middle	-0.15L	212
Middle	+0.13L	222
Middle-high	+0.20L	210
High	-0.04L	214

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.99L	196
Low-middle	-0.81L	196
Middle	-0.18L	194
Middle-high	+1.25L	194
High	-1.22L	199

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	-1.40L	111
Middle	-0.27L	115
Middle-high	+1.02L	111

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.30L	208
Low-middle	-0.36L	175
Middle	-0.21L	191
Middle-high	+1.29L	172
High	-0.87L	209

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.55L	161
Low-middle	-0.04L	163
Middle	-1.47L	152
Middle-high	+0.64L	161
High	-0.76L	163

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Bath. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	18.4% of 468	12.5% of 786	10.7% of 657	7.6% of 662
Low-middle	15.9% of 402	11.5% of 771	8.9% of 671	6.8% of 776
Middle	20.9% of 393	13.4% of 764	8.6% of 613	9.3% of 883
Middle-high	14.5% of 407	12.1% of 755	10.3% of 624	9.0% of 824
High	18.3% of 378	14.1% of 736	11.3% of 567	7.1% of 899

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Bath racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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