Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Bath draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Bath, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Middle-high draws have been worth +0.89L per run over 12f to 15f, across 454 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Bath together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.17L	2,728
Low-middle	-0.03L	2,769
Middle	+0.08L	2,813
Middle-high	+0.14L	2,764
High	-0.36L	2,734

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.31L	1,245
Low-middle	-0.19L	1,278
Middle	+0.37L	1,276
Middle-high	-0.12L	1,276
High	-0.38L	1,246

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.34L	621
Low-middle	-0.33L	660
Middle	+0.28L	644
Middle-high	-0.08L	660
High	-0.19L	621

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.09L	489
Low-middle	-0.18L	482
Middle	+0.41L	487
Middle-high	+0.01L	480
High	-0.33L	490

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.01L	135
Low-middle	+0.48L	136
Middle	+0.62L	145
Middle-high	-0.76L	136
High	-1.39L	135

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.27L	275
Low-middle	-0.24L	389
Middle	+0.51L	366
Middle-high	-0.08L	390
High	-0.49L	276

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.16L	626
Low-middle	-0.16L	523
Middle	+0.37L	576
Middle-high	+0.05L	520
High	-0.41L	627

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.61L	302
Low-middle	-0.50L	318
Middle	+0.14L	284
Middle-high	-0.05L	318
High	-0.17L	300

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.07L	587
Low-middle	+0.73L	589
Middle	+0.05L	610
Middle-high	-0.02L	591
High	-0.69L	590

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.21L	245
Low-middle	+1.26L	257
Middle	+0.79L	265
Middle-high	-1.08L	257
High	-0.82L	247

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.05L	264
Low-middle	+0.25L	259
Middle	+0.04L	267
Middle-high	+0.80L	259
High	-1.02L	265

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.59L	102
Low-middle	+1.05L	137
Middle	+0.80L	135
Middle-high	-0.98L	137
High	-0.55L	102

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.45L	287
Low-middle	+0.52L	253
Middle	-0.80L	291
Middle-high	+0.07L	253
High	-0.16L	288

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.56L	198
Low-middle	+0.76L	199
Middle	+0.86L	184
Middle-high	+0.54L	201
High	-1.54L	200

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.27L	370
Low-middle	+0.24L	379
Middle	+0.25L	388
Middle-high	-0.28L	378
High	+0.04L	370

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.63L	182
Low-middle	-0.36L	183
Middle	-1.33L	193
Middle-high	+0.85L	182
High	+1.56L	182

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.18L	146
Low-middle	-0.55L	150
Middle	+1.81L	151
Middle-high	+0.08L	150
High	-1.21L	146

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+1.08L	121
Middle	+0.26L	109
Middle-high	-1.53L	121

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.65L	181
Low-middle	-1.20L	154
Middle	-0.20L	187
Middle-high	+0.42L	154
High	+0.22L	181

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.03L	102
Low-middle	+1.40L	104
Middle-high	+0.16L	103
High	-1.61L	102

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.61L	461
Low-middle	-0.39L	459
Middle	-0.65L	466
Middle-high	+0.89L	454
High	-0.43L	464

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.19L	217
Low-middle	-0.14L	214
Middle	+0.13L	225
Middle-high	+0.20L	212
High	-0.01L	217

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.01L	201
Low-middle	-0.56L	204
Middle	-0.22L	199
Middle-high	+1.03L	202
High	-1.23L	204

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	-1.28L	113
Middle	-0.23L	116
Middle-high	+0.89L	113

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.30L	208
Low-middle	-0.36L	175
Middle	-0.21L	191
Middle-high	+1.29L	172
High	-0.87L	209

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.47L	168
Low-middle	+0.17L	171
Middle	-1.48L	159
Middle-high	+0.47L	169
High	-0.71L	170

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Bath. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	18.3% of 482	12.9% of 809	10.4% of 681	7.3% of 683
Low-middle	16.3% of 417	11.6% of 791	8.7% of 700	6.8% of 797
Middle	20.5% of 404	13.5% of 780	8.9% of 638	9.1% of 909
Middle-high	14.7% of 422	11.9% of 776	10.2% of 646	8.9% of 850
High	18.3% of 387	13.8% of 759	11.1% of 587	6.9% of 929

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Bath racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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