Draw Bias · Left-handed · Turf

Bath draw bias

What each part of the draw has really been worth at Bath, in lengths against the field average, measured from every Flat race here since 2014. Positive figures finish closer to the winner than the field does; negative ones give lengths away at the stalls.

The strongest measured effect: Middle-high draws have been worth +0.97L per run over 12f to 15f, across 449 runs.

The whole picture, every trip

Every stalled run at Bath together. The trip tables below tell the finer story: a bias at 5f can vanish, or flip, at a mile.

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.17L	2,679
Low-middle	-0.08L	2,720
Middle	+0.05L	2,770
Middle-high	+0.18L	2,715
High	-0.32L	2,685

Over 5f to 6f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.32L	1,231
Low-middle	-0.19L	1,265
Middle	+0.36L	1,264
Middle-high	-0.13L	1,263
High	-0.36L	1,232

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.34L	621
Low-middle	-0.33L	660
Middle	+0.28L	644
Middle-high	-0.08L	660
High	-0.19L	621

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.10L	475
Low-middle	-0.18L	469
Middle	+0.39L	475
Middle-high	-0.01L	467
High	-0.30L	476

On soft ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.01L	135
Low-middle	+0.48L	136
Middle	+0.62L	145
Middle-high	-0.76L	136
High	-1.39L	135

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.26L	274
Low-middle	-0.25L	387
Middle	+0.52L	365
Middle-high	-0.09L	388
High	-0.46L	275

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.18L	616
Low-middle	-0.16L	515
Middle	+0.35L	567
Middle-high	+0.02L	512
High	-0.39L	617

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.61L	299
Low-middle	-0.49L	315
Middle	+0.13L	282
Middle-high	-0.04L	315
High	-0.18L	297

Over 7f to 8f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.05L	564
Low-middle	+0.61L	567
Middle	-0.03L	590
Middle-high	-0.01L	569
High	-0.52L	567

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.21L	245
Low-middle	+1.26L	257
Middle	+0.79L	265
Middle-high	-1.08L	257
High	-0.82L	247

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.00L	241
Low-middle	-0.07L	237
Middle	-0.15L	247
Middle-high	+0.90L	237
High	-0.65L	242

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.59L	102
Low-middle	+1.05L	137
Middle	+0.80L	135
Middle-high	-0.98L	137
High	-0.55L	102

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.43L	281
Low-middle	+0.49L	247
Middle	-0.86L	285
Middle-high	+0.12L	247
High	-0.08L	282

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.47L	181
Low-middle	+0.44L	183
Middle	+0.70L	170
Middle-high	+0.55L	185
High	-1.19L	183

Over 9f to 11f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.24L	365
Low-middle	+0.24L	375
Middle	+0.22L	384
Middle-high	-0.25L	374
High	+0.02L	365

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.63L	182
Low-middle	-0.36L	183
Middle	-1.33L	193
Middle-high	+0.85L	182
High	+1.56L	182

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.11L	141
Low-middle	-0.56L	146
Middle	+1.76L	147
Middle-high	+0.16L	146
High	-1.31L	141

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	+1.07L	120
Middle	+0.20L	108
Middle-high	-1.42L	120

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.78L	177
Low-middle	-1.21L	151
Middle	-0.25L	184
Middle-high	+0.40L	151
High	+0.17L	177

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-1.03L	102
Low-middle	+1.40L	104
Middle-high	+0.16L	103
High	-1.61L	102

Over 12f to 15f

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.58L	458
Low-middle	-0.47L	454
Middle	-0.64L	463
Middle-high	+0.97L	449
High	-0.43L	461

On firm ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	-0.19L	217
Low-middle	-0.14L	214
Middle	+0.13L	225
Middle-high	+0.20L	212
High	-0.01L	217

On good ground

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.95L	198
Low-middle	-0.74L	199
Middle	-0.18L	196
Middle-high	+1.23L	197
High	-1.23L	201

Fields of 2-7 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low-middle	-1.40L	111
Middle	-0.27L	115
Middle-high	+1.02L	111

Fields of 8-11 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+0.30L	208
Low-middle	-0.36L	175
Middle	-0.21L	191
Middle-high	+1.29L	172
High	-0.87L	209

Fields of 12-15 runners

Draw	Lengths vs field average	Runs
Low	+1.41L	166
Low-middle	+0.04L	168
Middle	-1.42L	157
Middle-high	+0.62L	166
High	-0.72L	168

Run styles from each part of the draw

Win rates for horses ridden in each early-position style from each part of the draw at Bath. A front runner drawn low and one drawn wide are not the same bet, and no course average says so.

Draw	Led	Prominent	Midfield	Held up
Low	18.3% of 475	12.6% of 796	10.5% of 669	7.5% of 666
Low-middle	15.9% of 408	11.7% of 777	8.9% of 686	6.7% of 786
Middle	20.9% of 397	13.4% of 774	8.5% of 620	9.3% of 897
Middle-high	14.8% of 412	11.9% of 766	10.1% of 634	9.0% of 835
High	18.6% of 382	14.0% of 744	11.1% of 577	7.0% of 910

How to read these figures

The draw is read as a rank among the stalls actually occupied, cut into five bands from Low to High, so an 8-runner field and a 20-runner field compare honestly. Fallers and horses pulled up carry no beaten distance and are left out of their race’s average, races with fewer than 5 stalled runners are skipped, and a figure is only published where at least 100 runs sit behind it. The full method is on the draw bias index.

This is on every Bath racecard

Premium members get the draw read per stall on the card itself, next to the ratings, the pace map and each horse’s own running style. Five days free, no card.

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