The 3:55 at Worcester on Thursday was a Class 5 novices’ limited handicap hurdle, 11 runners, nothing about it that would make you stop and watch. It has turned into the most instructive race we have seen for a while, and not for a good reason.
Here is the field coming to the line. Have a proper look at it, because there is something missing.
Would you believe it. The first, second and third are not in that picture at all.
They were over here
Three horses, three jockeys, all of them hard against the near-side rail on ground nobody else went near. They finished first, second and third. The other eight raced as a group somewhere else entirely and filled every place from 4th down.
The result
Crafty Gael (Sean Bowen, for Olly Murphy) beat Forest Spirit (James Bowen, for Mickey Bowen), with Daaris (Lee Edwards, for Kevin and Lauren Frost) third at 22/1. Sean Bowen and James Bowen had the first two home between them, and the pair of them pulled clear of everything else. Credit to all three riders for being where they were. But the one we want to talk about is the third.
Lee Edwards deserves a lot of credit here
Daaris was 22/1. On the betting he was the 7th most likely winner of 11. He is 7 years old, he was rated 91 in a 0-95, and there was no obvious reason to fancy him.
What Lee Edwards did was watch what the two best jockeys at the track were doing, go with them, and get the same ground they got. He finished 3rd, and he finished best of all the horses that were not part of the Bowen pair. Take the near side away and he is beaten a long way.
That is a jockey using his head, and it is worth far more than the 3rd-place prize money he picked up.
Now the part that annoys us
This is the course strike rate for every jockey riding in that race, straight off our own racecard. The boxed column is J C SR, their record at Worcester.
| Jockey | Worcester strike rate | Finished |
|---|---|---|
| Sean Bowen | 22.15% | 1st |
| James Bowen | 21.88% | 2nd |
| David Bass | 13.85% | 5th |
| Nick Slatter | 11.43% | 4th |
| Bradley Harris | 8.00% | 8th |
| Brendan Powell | 7.87% | 10th |
| Isabelle Ryder | 6.67% | 7th |
| Lee Edwards | 6.47% | 3rd |
| James Best | 5.20% | 6th |
| Tabitha Worsley | 4.76% | 11th |
The two best jockeys at this course, clear of the field on strike rate, both took two fancied horses down the near side. The rest of the weighing room watched them do it and stayed where they were.
Only Lee Edwards, 8th on that list, went with them. And he beat the seven riders who did not.
So what were the others doing?
These are the questions we would genuinely like answered.
- Did they walk the track? The Bowens plainly knew something. Lee Edwards worked it out. Did nobody else?
- Did they watch the earlier races? The commentator had already remarked on air that the near side looked the place to be. It was not a secret being kept from anybody.
- Did they see the two best course riders in the race go over there and think nothing of it? Because that is the bit we cannot get past. Two jockeys with a strike rate double everyone else’s make an obvious, visible decision at the same time, and eight riders let them get on with it.
Ground changes. Rail movements change. A track that rode evenly last month can have a strip of fresh ground up one side today. That is precisely what walking a course, and watching the first three races, is meant to tell you. It is not asking for genius. It is asking for someone to look.
And the proof is the third horse home. A 22/1 shot, 7th in the betting, who finished 3rd for no other reason than that his rider followed two men who had clearly done their homework.
So close to a treble
We had a stake in this one, and it was a frustrating afternoon for us. Our Top Rated was Forest Spirit, James Bowen’s mount, and he was narrowly beaten by Crafty Gael, who our ratings had second. Both were in the right place, both finished in front of the entire rest of the field, and it came down to a photo between our number 1 and our number 2.
What made it sting was the NAP Competition. Forest Spirit was our 3B, and this was the middle leg of the 3.
Our NB, Waardah, had already won the 3:00 at Doncaster at 4.20. 55 minutes later, Forest Spirit went down in the driving finish between the Bowen brothers. And then our NAP, Devil’s Peak, went and won the 5:20 at Doncaster at 3.60.
Both winners had been sitting on our tracker since Goodwood: Devil’s Peak flagged after running on from second last on 31 July, Waardah after being given far too much to do in the Lillie Langtry on 1 August. The tracker is part of Premium and Pro membership, and days like this are what it is for.
3 picks, 2 winners, and the one in the middle beaten in a photo with a treble at a shade under 62/1 sitting there. That is the one that will stay with us.
Every figure in this article, including the course strike rates, is on our racecards for every runner in every race. You can see them on the free ratings or read more about what is on a racecard.