Saturday is the best day of the British and Irish flat season that is not a Champions Day: the St Leger at Doncaster, and Irish Champions Weekend getting under way at Leopardstown with the Matron Stakes and the Irish Champion Stakes.
We have gone through both cards and there are 11 races we want to talk about. Here they are in time order, starting at Doncaster.
1:45 Doncaster, Champagne Stakes (Group 2)
Six runners, and the two that matter are Desert Castle and Sergei Diaghilev. Our ratings make Sergei Diaghilev the Top Rated, on 178.72 against 174.94.
Desert Castle is the one everyone will be on. Charlie Appleby, Billy Loughnane, a Frankel colt who won on his only start at Newmarket in August by 3.5 lengths. That is a big margin and it reads well. But look at what he beat. The horse that came second has since been beaten at Kempton on the all-weather in another novice. This is only his second ever run, and he has never been asked a question in a finish.
We think he gets asked one here, and that is why we prefer Sergei Diaghilev.
The case for Sergei Diaghilev
Aidan O'Brien's colt has had 3 runs, and the shape of them is the point.
- Curragh, 23 May, 6f maiden. Sent off 1.67, which is 4/6. They knew. Won by half a length.
- Ascot, 17 June, the Windsor Castle Stakes. Sent off 3.75, 11/4, in a 25-runner Listed race, and finished 9th, beaten 4.5 lengths.
- Gowran Park, 7 August, the Churchill Stakes over 1m. Won by three quarters of a length.
That Ascot run is the one that put people off, and we think it is the one that should bring them back. Look at what has happened to the horses who finished around him in a race won by a 34.00 shot, King Of Cloughan, who had the benefit of 2 previous runs:
- Moonrise was 2nd at 67.00 and has since won 2 Group 3s.
- Celeron was 15th and has since won a Group 2 and run in a Group 1.
- Sale Shark was 5th and has since won a Listed race at York.
That is a race full of horses who were not ready on the day and have gone on to prove themselves since. It looks a lot like a race where experience decided it, and Sergei Diaghilev had the least of it.
He went to Gowran with that extra run under his belt and won a Listed race. He has proved he stays a mile, so 7f here is well within him, and Wayne Lordan can ride him positively and try to make it a test rather than a sprint home. Against a horse having his second ever start, that is exactly how you want the race run.
The other 10 races, including the St Leger, the Matron and the Irish Champion, are below for members.