Day 2 of Newmarket's July Festival, and we have been right through Friday's card. This preview is free for everyone this time, Free, Premium and Pro members alike, so below are the horses we like and, just as importantly, the short-priced favourites we are happy to take on.
To follow along you can view tomorrow's Newmarket ratings and see exactly what we are talking about. Tomorrow's ratings are already available to anyone who has entered the NAP Competition three times this week, and if you have entered twice this week they will be available to you tomorrow.
1:50 Oddschecker Handicap (1m2f)
The first race of the day, and our idea of the winner is Laureate Crown, who we make RTR 3. Since being gelded he has been a different horse, reeling off wins at Wolverhampton and then landing the Esher Cup at Sandown, before taking his chance at Royal Ascot. On official form figures that Ascot run reads as a 0 because he finished twelfth, and plenty will see that figure and knock him for it. We do not. You could argue it should be a 2: he finished second in his group over on the far side on a day the pace bias was all down the near side, and he was given a very patient, confident ride by Jamie Spencer. He arguably should have got a lot closer and probably should have won his side, and even if he had only done that he would not be the price he is. If his form read 1-1-2 rather than 1-1-0 coming into this, he would be far more respected in the market. We thought Royal Ascot was a very good effort, and he is the one we want to be with, at 9/2.
2:25 Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2, 6f)
Here we want to trust our ratings, and they are telling us something interesting: the runner-up effort of Senorita Bonita was a better piece of form than the winning run of Libertango. We make Senorita Bonita RTR 1, just ahead of Libertango at RTR 2. She steps up to 6f now, and if that extra furlong brings out a little more improvement she could be the one to beat, not Libertango. It is all about whether she truly gets the trip: connections may well be thinking that she had the speed for 5f and that 6f will suit her even better. At the prices we are happy to take a chance on her. You can get 3/1 about Senorita Bonita against the 8/13 of Libertango, and with our ratings suggesting hers was the stronger effort, the second favourite looks a really good bet.
3:00 bet365 Trophy (1m6f)
It is obvious why there is a short-priced favourite in here in Wine Dark Sea, but we want to take him on, and with two horses. First, our top-rated runner Valedictory (RTR 1). He has already proven he stays this 1m6f trip and was a very good, comfortable winner at Goodwood last time, the type who could still be improving. When Wine Dark Sea beat him over 1m4f, Valedictory was staying on strongly and only just getting going late; over today's longer trip he would have finished a good deal closer. Since then Wine Dark Sea has gone up 11lb and Valedictory only 5lb, so there is already a 6lb swing in his favour, plus the step up in trip to factor in, and Valedictory was the one who went off favourite that day. Wine Dark Sea, by contrast, still has to prove he truly wants this trip, and he might not.
The second one to note is Oneforthegutter, who has run this race for the last two years: second off 89 in 2024 and a winner off 92 last year. He runs off just 88 today, lower than both of those marks, so this looks very much a plot to get him back for a race the yard clearly targets, and he is a much bigger price than he should be. It would not surprise us one bit to see him bounce back to form. There is another negative for Wine Dark Sea, too: his jockey, Lewis Edmunds, has a poor record at Newmarket, without a winner from his rides at the track, and if the favourite is turned over it could easily be because he does not get the run of the race.
3:35 Falmouth Stakes (Group 1, 1m)
This looks a match between two very smart fillies, Precise and Blue Bolt, and we are happy to leave it alone. We rate them right at the top, with Blue Bolt marginally our number one (RTR 1) and Precise, the odds-on favourite, RTR 2. Both are seriously talented. We cannot back Precise at what are prohibitive odds, and we cannot make a strong enough case for why Blue Bolt turns her over. Precise looks very good indeed, and this is simply one to enjoy rather than bet.
4:10 Maiden Fillies' Stakes (6f)
Another one we will be leaving alone, with too many unknowns. It is a maiden packed with well-bred, lightly-raced and debuting fillies, and it is probably a race worth watching rather than betting in. Whatever wins, and the ones filling the places behind, may well go on to better things, but this is not one we want to get involved in at this stage.
4:45 Debenhams Handicap (5f)
We do like one here and want to give it a chance: Twilight Calls, who we also make our top rated (RTR 1). He is a former top-class sprinter who ran to a high of 110 and finished second in a Group 1 behind Nature Strip at Royal Ascot. He is not that horse anymore, but his last couple of runs suggest he has bounced back to a bit of form. He dropped to a mark of 80, went off the 5/2 joint favourite and won nicely, then went up 4lb for that. Next time at Yarmouth we thought he did really well to get as close as he did: the race favoured those ridden up with the pace, and Twilight Calls, held up out the back, was closing hard at the finish, only going down by a neck to the pair who had gone forward.
What interests us is his record at this Newmarket July course. He has been here twice. Last year he ran in a Group 1 when sent off at 150/1, was never going to win, and disappointed in finishing thirteenth of fourteen. But on his only other start here he ran in a handicap off a mark of 87, the exact mark he runs off today, and comfortably beat King Of Stars as a three-year-old. You could easily argue he simply likes this track off this sort of mark. He is a big price too: we thought he would be shorter given he has gone off favourite or joint favourite for his last two starts, and you can currently get 9/1. Nothing in here looks especially progressive or well handicapped, so it may just come down to who has a couple of pounds in hand, and at this track Twilight Calls might well be that horse.
5:20 Jockey Club Handicap (7f)
The last race, and one where a piece of form we like re-opposes: Toastmaster beat Flight Control last time, and they meet again here. Go back and watch that race, though, and Toastmaster never looked like winning until right on the line, whereas Flight Control, who travelled sweetly in behind before kicking on to try to win it, looked the likely winner for a long way and was only run down close home. It rather suited the way the race developed for Toastmaster. Our concern for anyone backing Toastmaster, who is likely to be favourite, is whether he gets the same strongly-run race to aim at this time. He might not. Flight Control, by contrast, can be ridden with a bit more patience by William Pyle, who knows the horse will give him a good, honest run, and at the prices we hope to see, Flight Control could well prove the better value.
