Every Tuesday morning the handicapper publishes the revised marks, and this is where the real stories hide. A pound or two either way can turn a horse we flagged as unlucky into a horse that is now thrown in, so each week we will go through the new marks against our race reviews and our tracker and pull out the ones that matter. Welcome to the first of our weekly Handicap Analysis posts.
Nine horses caught our eye this week, and for each one we have also picked out where they could go next: up to two suitable races, checked against the calendar and, importantly, against the horse itself, because there is no point nominating a fillies' race for a colt or a 0-100 handicap for a horse rated 104. Each suggested race links to last year's running on RatingTheRaces, so you can see exactly the type of race we mean. The first horse is free for everyone to read; the other eight are for Premium and Pro members.
Danger Bay: raised 2lb, 102 to 104
Danger Bay was the clear eyecatcher in the John Smith's Cup at York on Saturday, where he travelled really well, got no run at all, and came home a never-nearer fifth. The handicapper has clearly watched the same race we did, because he goes up 2lb to 104 for a race he was never allowed to get competitive in. That is a shame for anyone hoping he would sneak into his next handicap unpenalised, but it changes nothing about the ability he showed: with a clear passage he remains one to be very interested in, and he stays firmly in our tracker.
Where next: the closing heritage handicap on the Saturday of York's Ebor festival in August, a 0-105 run over the exact course and distance of the John Smith's Cup, looks made for him, and off 104 he gets in right at the top of the weights. If connections want to go sooner, the Chesterfield Cup at Glorious Goodwood at the end of the month is a valuable Class 2 for four-year-olds and up over a very similar ten furlongs. One more from the data: he is two from two at Hamilton, where both his trainer and his sire's progeny also have good records, and the Lanark Silver Bell there in late August is another heritage handicap worth £50,000-plus to the winner, albeit over a mile and a half.
