Tuesday means new handicap marks, and this week they are dominated by one meeting. The Shergar Cup at Ascot is the hardest afternoon of the year to read, and that makes it one of the most interesting for anybody who follows the handicapper. This is our weekly Handicap Analysis, picking up from last week's list, where we go through the new official marks alongside our own ratings.
The reason is the way the races are run. Jockeys arrive from all over the world, ride in teams, and in many cases have never sat on the horse or seen the track before. Gallops get overcooked, hold-up horses end up in front, front runners end up last, and the result is a set of races that are simply not run to form. The right horses often do not win.
Which cuts both ways when the marks come out. The winners get hit hard: this year's six winners went up 7lb, 7lb, 6lb, 6lb, 4lb and 3lb. And the beaten horses come out the other side with drops that can be unusually kind, because the reason they were beaten frequently had nothing to do with their ability. A drop out of the Shergar Cup is worth more than a drop out of an ordinary handicap, and that is the thread running through this week's list.
This week's movers at a glance
- Tuco Salamanca: raised 6lb, 100 to 106, after winning the Shergar Cup Dash.
- Red Spells Danger: raised 6lb, 92 to 98, after winning the Sprint.
- Dancing In Paris: raised 3lb, 90 to 93, after winning the Stayers.
- Thunder Call: raised 2lb, 91 to 93, second in the Sprint.
- All Ways Glamorous: held on 97, fourth in the Dash.
- Enemy: held on 95, third in the Challenge.
- Castle Stuart: dropped 1lb, 91 to 90, ninth in the Challenge.
- Two Tribes: dropped 1lb, 104 to 103, fifth in the Mile.
- Spirit Mixer: dropped 2lb, 94 to 92, last of ten in the Stayers.
Those are the numbers, and they are a matter of public record. What they are worth, and where we think each horse goes next, is the part below for Premium and Pro members. The first horse is free for everyone, because he was our free selection in Saturday's Shergar Cup preview.
All Ways Glamorous: held on 97
All Ways Glamorous was our free selection in the Shergar Cup Dash and finished fourth at 10/3. The handicapper has looked at it and left him alone on 97, and we are perfectly happy with that, because the run tells you very little about the horse.
Our case for him was that he was the one in form, coming off wins at Ffos Las off 85 and at Ascot off 92, and that the simplest job in the race was to bounce him out and let him bowl along in front. What actually happened was the opposite. He jumped slowly, was then rushed up to take the lead anyway, and having spent his early energy getting there he raced keenly in front and had nothing left for the finish. That is not the plan going wrong through bad luck, it is the plan going wrong through execution, which is exactly the risk this meeting carries.
So he keeps a mark of 97 that he has not yet had a fair chance to prove he can win off. Get him out of the gates and settled in front and we think there is still a race to be won with him.
Where next: the five furlong heritage handicap on the Wednesday of York's Ebor meeting, confirmed in this year's programme for four-year-olds and up, is the obvious target for a sprinter of his profile, though it is a hot race. The simpler option is a return to Ascot, where he won off 92 in July and clearly goes well.
