Here is how Friday at Cheltenham and Doncaster went, race by race, and what we take from it for next time.
13:15 Cheltenham: East India Express, done on the line
William Hill Epic Boosts Handicap Hurdle, Class 3, 2m3f200y, 11 runners.
And guess what? We have been done on the line again. East India Express was beaten a short head by Frontier Prince.
We actually thought he got the perfect run through. Everything went right for him, and he got a lovely jump at the last because the hurdle was flattened. Then he was done on the line, on a bob. A stride before, a stride after, and we win the race. Really, really frustrating.
The drift
He was a massive drifter on the day. Our Odds Movement view has him opening at 13.5 on the Exchange and drifting 35% to 18.27, and he was a 12/1 shot at SP. We were not expecting anywhere near that.
Bear in mind that just a few runs ago he went off 4/1 for the Martin Pipe at the Festival, 6.2 on the Exchange, off 137. On Friday he was 2lb lower, in a much easier race, and he went off 18.27.
We think the drift suggests he was not expected to go so well, and yet he did. It was his first run for 187 days, and we think he ran that well on ability rather than fitness.
Beaten on fitness
The winner battled well, but he had the fitness. Frontier Prince won at Perth just 30 days earlier, went up 8lb for it, and won this off 122. Quite a few in this race had the fitness:
- Crooked Path, 3rd, ran 8 days earlier.
- Sunny South West, 4th, ran 15 days earlier.
- Can Happen, 5th, ran 34 days earlier.
Now look at the other three that had not had a run for months: La Pinsonniere (100 days) was 8th, John Barbour (194 days) was 9th, and Al Gasparo (159 days) was 10th. Our horse, off the same sort of break, was beaten on the line.
Next time
Give him that run. Let's hope the handicapper puts him up 1lb or 2lb, and if he does, we would be keen to back him again next time, because fitness will then be on his side. Off 137, maybe 138, we would be backing him. If he goes up more than that, you have to ask whether he is in the right race, because they could just go too high in the handicap with him.
13:50 Cheltenham: Bowensonfire did indeed win
Catesby Estates Chasing Excellence Novices' Chase, Class 2, 1m7f199y, 5 runners.
Bowensonfire did indeed win, and quite nicely, by a length and three quarters at evens. We thought he was always doing enough. Jack Kennedy very often dropped his hands: I don't need to go just yet, don't need to go just yet. It was not until the last, and after the last, that he said, okay, we can go now, and he picked up really nicely to win.
Two very good runs behind him
A really good run from Passing Diamond, for Ben Haslam. He was trying to give Bowensonfire 8lb, and he is rated 15lb lower. Clearly very progressive: he had won his last 3 over fences, off 105, 115 and 124.
And a very good, quiet run from Ice Jet for the Skeltons. Watch Harry Skelton's ride on him. It was a question: are we good enough to mix it in this company? Yes, you are. Harry let the front two kick away and gave him quite a gentle ride, making sure he was not too close, and he still finished 3rd, beaten about 4 lengths.
He clearly has ability. He won at Uttoxeter in September off 117, by 18 lengths, and came here rated 127. He was getting 4lb from Bowensonfire, but on their official marks he was rated 16lb lower, so he was significantly wrong at the weights, and he has probably run to a much higher mark.
Both Passing Diamond and Ice Jet ran really, really good races, given how far wrong they were at the weights with Bowensonfire. But it is Ice Jet we would want to take out of this race the most. He is only a 4-year-old and we think he is going to get better. The Skeltons know now that they have a horse that can mix it in this grade, and in our opinion he could have mixed it with Bowensonfire if he had been fully got at.
14:25 Cheltenham: The Hardest Geezer, the one to take out of it
Foundation Developments Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle, Class 3, 2m87y, 11 runners.
We would love to know The Hardest Geezer's in-running low, which we will find out once the in-running prices are in. We thought he was going to win. He travelled really, really well. Did he lack for that run? We think so.
We thought Jack Stenhouse did everything right. Harry Atkins just got a soft lead out in front on Continuance, a fit horse who had run just 37 days earlier. Ours had not run for 258 days. He travelled so well and just did not pick up, and he could not run down a horse with an easy lead who was fit.
Just look at it again. Of the first 6 home, 5 had had a recent run:
- Continuance, 1st, 37 days.
- Kapitein Kool, 3rd, 14 days.
- Wild Goose, 4th, 22 days.
- King Ulanda, 5th, 22 days.
- Loriko, 6th, 37 days.
Only one of them had not, and that horse finished 2nd: our selection, The Hardest Geezer.
He is going to really step forward on that, we are sure of it, and he will progress past Continuance this season. We are convinced he will end up the best of these and go on further than any of them. The Hardest Geezer is the one to take out of this race, without a doubt.
One to watch: Loriko
We will be watching to see where Loriko goes next. We are not sure he got the hardest of rides, which we think is a Dan Skelton tactic. Mr Dominic Lewis certainly did not seem to get after him, and he finished 6th at 18/1. He was dropping back to 2 miles, having won at Sedgefield and finished 3rd at Kelso over around 2m4f, so they will say he did not have the pace for this.
Or could it have been Dominic Lewis going to learn how to ride Cheltenham, with the Martin Pipe at the end of the season in mind? Maybe. Maybe.
Interestingly, Loriko finished 3rd last time out at Kelso, behind Dream's Ka and Continuance, the horse who came out and won this race. Loriko was sent off the 8/13 favourite to beat him that day, carrying 12st 6lb and giving Continuance 15lb. We feel there might be something in Loriko down the line, in another race.
15:00 Cheltenham: Cooltobecareless disappointing in the Sharp
Oddschecker Novices' Hurdle (the Sharp), Class 1, 2m87y, 10 runners.
Cooltobecareless was disappointing, to be honest, wasn't he? We thought he got a nice run through. He was just a bit wayward at the last: he kind of stretched for it, and then he was a little bit all over the place up the straight. When the battle was on, we feel that if Harry Skelton had ridden out to the line he would probably have finished 2nd. He did not, and he finished 3rd at 13/8 favourite. Which was kind of good in a way: we were not going to have another 2nd.
With Kingofthefrontier, you just have to suggest his R figure last time out was correct. It was a really high figure, 142.8, the highest in the field bar Eternal Angel's, and his were figures we did not really trust. He won at 20/1.
Interestingly, this time the front two had not had a run: Kingofthefrontier for 143 days, Planters Punch for 195. Ours had, just 14 days earlier. Maybe that was a little too soon, and maybe he did not get over that run.
Do not follow this race too deeply
We would not be following this form too deeply, though. Look at the previous winners in our Season Notebook: the Sharp does not often go on very well. Of the last 10 winners, only Elixir De Nutz won next time out.
So we would not be that keen to follow it in graded races. Maybe in a handicap down the line they will find something for one of these that were beaten, and we would look for the ones that travelled really well but maybe did not get home. Something like Planters Punch, or maybe Cooltobecareless, in a handicap down the line, but not in graded races going forward.
15:35 Cheltenham: Jpr One, just the best horse in the race
squareintheair.com Handicap Chase, Class 2, 1m7f199y, 8 runners.
Jpr One was just the best horse in the race, wasn't he? He had the ability. He is the graded horse running in a handicap, and with 12st on his back, off 158, he was just too good. It was great to get him home in front.
Calico, who had obviously been plotted to come back and win this for a third year running, did serve it up to Jpr One turning into the straight. We were a little bit worried the Skeltons were going to beat us, and we are massive fans of the Skeltons. If Calico had not served it up to him, we think Jpr One wins more comfortably. But because he had to go so early, it allowed Traprain Law and Soul Icon to finish really strongly. They are just handicappers. Jpr One goes back into graded races now.
Calico: catch him at Ascot
That might well have been Calico's Gold Cup, and it has not quite come off this season. He won this race last year off 142, by 7 lengths, and the year before off 138. He went up 6lb to 148 for this year's go, and finished 4th.
That means he might drop a little in the handicap, and next time might be the time to catch him. At 148 he is already a pound lower than when he won at Ascot last November, off 149, beating Martator. Surely that is where he goes next, and that race is worth exactly the same, £52,030.
He might drop a pound or two after just dropping away late on. If he does, and turns up at Ascot off a 2lb lower mark with this run under his belt, the fitness in him and the same sort of prize money on offer, Calico might be the one to be on next time.
One more thing. We saw Calico being put up as a spotted horse, a tracker horse, inside information. For a horse trying to win this race for the third year running? That is not inside information. That is not trainer talk, and it is not being clever. That is just reading that he had won it for the last 2 years.
16:30 Doncaster: Aberama Gold, caught late
William Hill Price Boosts Every Day Handicap (Division 1), Class 4, 0-85, 6f2y, 12 runners, heavy ground.
We had had some 2nds already, and we thought we were booked for 2nd again with Aberama Gold. He drifted out to 22/1 (our Odds Movement view has him drifting 90%, from 21.0 to 40.0 on the Exchange), and at the half furlong pole he looked booked for 2nd, didn't he? Then Mark Winn just kind of stopped riding a little bit, and he got caught by two late on, Star Material and Topwarrior. He finished 4th, and that each way money went down the pan in the last few strides.
A frustrating day
That has got to be a frustrating day, hasn't it?
- A 2nd on the bob: East India Express.
- A 2nd when travelling well: The Hardest Geezer.
- A 3rd when a bit wayward, though probably not good enough on the day: Cooltobecareless.
- A 4th at a massive price, 22/1: Aberama Gold.
- And Jpr One winning.
Bowensonfire won too, the one we said we would be watching rather than betting. And there is plenty to take out of the day: East India Express and The Hardest Geezer should both come on for the run, Ice Jet is the one we want from the novices' chase, and Calico is one for Ascot.