Saturday Preview: Newmarket, Ascot and Beyond

2:15 Newmarket, Whirlpool Fillies' Handicap (7f)

A big fan of Song N Dance here, whose form looks rock solid. Her effort behind City Queen at Sandown was a really good one, and City Queen has since come out and won a decent handicap there and is now rated fully 10lb higher, whereas Song N Dance has gone up only 3lb. She then went to Ascot and ran another cracker to finish second, splitting Radiant Beauty, who has won a Listed race at Pontefract since, and Alobayyah, third that day, who has gone on to win the Kensington Palace at Royal Ascot. That is strong form. She was rated 84 and is only 85 now, so she remains well treated in a handicap, and we think she takes all the beating.

2:27 Ascot, Juddmonte Summer Mile (Group 2, 7f 213y)

One where the best horse should simply win, and for us that is More Thunder, our top-rated runner. He is short enough at around 6/4, but he has the best form on show and the best figures, and on his day he can reach a level these rivals cannot. He ran a good race in the Queen Anne, a Group 1 at Royal Ascot, last time, and before that was not far behind Notable Speech in a Group 1 at Newbury. This is only a Group 2, and we think he has plenty in hand over the likes of Zeus Olympios and Docklands. None of the others look good enough to beat him, and this looks a well-chosen spot to get his head back in front.

2:39 York, John Smith's Racing Handicap (7f192y)

The one we like here is New Image, who looks nicely priced at as big as 16/1. He is a solid horse, and particularly so at York, where he has run twice: he was third off a mark of 88 when sent off 11/2, and last year he was disqualified after weighing in incorrectly having run off 95, when he went off just 6/1 for a feature handicap here. He runs off 86 today, and with Mason Paetel taking 5lb off he is effectively racing off 81, which is 4lb lower than when he was that close third and a full 14lb lower than when he was 6/1 for the big one here last year. He has not looked in the best of form since, and you have to wonder whether this has been the plan all along: get his mark dropped for this, potentially win here, then go back for the Clipper Handicap in August. Even if he were to win off 86 and go up to around 90, he would still be 5lb lower than last year. It looks a plot, and we think he is overpriced.

2:52 Newmarket, Weatherbys Handicap (1m)

We were on Moonfall when he won for us at Royal Ascot, but here we want to take him on, and the one to do it is Alfaraz, our top-rated runner. He has some really smart form in the book, including a run behind Maltese Cross, since second in the Derby, in a novice. Last time, dropped back to a mile, he won a novice himself, and to us it looked like they finally worked out how to ride him that day, sending him forward to make the most of his stamina at a mile rather than stretching him over further. He was also only just touched off by Ancient Egypt at Goodwood, and Ancient Egypt has since finished second in a Group 2 behind Causeway, so that is strong mile form, which is exactly the trip he wants rather than 1m2f. Off just 88 on his handicap debut he looks well treated, and at a general 6/1 he should be a fair bit shorter. We think he is nicely handicapped and can turn the tables on Moonfall.

2:57 Navan, Newgrange Hotel Handicap (6f180y)

A race we would normally have no interest in, a very low-grade 6f handicap, but there is one we are keeping an eye on the price of: Poweracclaim, for the Johnny Murtagh yard and ridden by Ben Coen. He has been to Navan twice, finishing fifth in a maiden over 6f under Coen and fifth again in a handicap with an apprentice up who did not give him the best of rides. He was rated 73 then, and the handicapper has dropped him quickly to 68. This looks a very moderate race, Murtagh knows exactly what he is doing with this sort, and Coen is back on board. His latest fourth at the Curragh was no disgrace either. This looks a race he has been found against some very moderate rivals, so he is the one to beat, and we will be watching his price closely.

3:12 York, John Smith's City Wall Stakes (Listed, 5f)

Next up is a Listed race, and we are going for one of our Royal Ascot eyecatchers, Miss Attitude. She actually ran in this very race last year and finished second, which immediately suggests she could have been aimed at it again, a little like Rumstar was clearly targeted at the Coral Charge at Sandown. Her latest run was a decent effort in a Group 1, so this is a big drop in class, and she was doing all of her best work at the finish that day, which should suit her ideally back at 5f in an easier race. She has been here and run well before, and she looks too big in comparison to the favourite Washington Heights, who won this last year.

3:25 Newmarket, Bunbury Cup (7f)

The feature handicap, and for us it comes down to just the front two in the market, Aalto and Elarak. It is not the most exciting conclusion, but they are the two that caught our eye, and we think Aalto beats Elarak. Our ratings are a guide here: Elarak posted a figure of 149.5 giving his all to win at Royal Ascot last time, and Aalto was asked for everything at Newmarket last time too, running a 148.5, so there is barely a pound between them on the clock. He won this very Bunbury Cup in 2024 and was second in it last year off 92, yet he gets in here off a lower mark and went up only 2lb for a recent second, so he is well treated. We think he is the better handicapped of the pair, can still improve, and takes all the beating. A boring one, maybe, but Aalto is our selection.

3:45 York, John Smith's Cup (1m2f)

We have already put up Castle Stuart for this £100,000 handicap, a horse whose form we really like, including when second behind Antipodes at York last time. The one we want to add alongside him is Thunder Run, who is a massive price at as big as 20/1. He ran in this race last year off 104, a pound higher than today, and was far from disgraced in sixth. That came off the back of a York handicap win that really caught our eye: he won it with plenty in hand, the jockey almost leaving it too late before getting there on the line, and he went up 4lb for it. It looks very much like he has been aimed back at this York track. Two runs ago, dropped to a mark of 100, he ran a lovely race to finish second behind Warrant Holder, who has since finished second at Royal Ascot, and in front of Altareq, who has since won a handicap at Ayr. That is strong form, and the prices look wrong: Warrant Holder went off 11/4 when beating Thunder Run that day and is a similar 4/1 here, yet Thunder Run is out to 20/1 and bigger. We think that is a huge overprice. This is a race worth winning, £100,000 to the winner, so we suspect they will be trying and will not want to leave it too late this time.

4:00 Newmarket, Superlative Stakes (Group 2, 7f)

Another where we want to trust the ratings, and they just favour Al Hudaiba, who has already achieved more than the odds-on Abraham Lincoln. Aidan O'Brien won this with City Of Troy a few years back, and in truth there is not a lot between the pair, we really would not have much between them at all. So it is the prices that decide it. Abraham Lincoln is odds-on and Al Hudaiba is 9/4, and it would not surprise us to see them a good deal closer at the off, with Abraham Lincoln drifting to odds against and Al Hudaiba potentially into sub-2/1. With so little between them, we want the value, and that is with Al Hudaiba. His two wins were very good and he looked really smart, the odd blip aside when unseating at Yarmouth, and while Abraham Lincoln may well be smart too, Al Hudaiba has been there and done it, and that experience could tell late.

4:20 York, John Smith's Stayers' Handicap (2m)

They know what to do with Secret Force now, and we think he can rack up a sequence. He looks nicely handicapped: yes, he has won stepping up to 2m2f, but a rise of just 4lb is not enough to stop a horse we rate really smart, one who could be well into the eighties, if not the nineties, by the end of the season. This is just another he can win en route. He comes back to York, where he did not run badly two runs ago over probably the wrong trip and when ridden too patiently; he wants to be much more prominent. Mikey Sheehy keeps the ride, and we think Secret Force takes all the beating over this 2m trip.

4:35 Newmarket, July Cup (Group 1, 6f)

Here we want to take the favourite on, and we do it with our top-rated runner, Mission Central, who looks overpriced. The way he won at Ascot suggested he wanted this longer trip: he was always behind before running on strongly to get up on the line, and the step up to 6f could see him travel far better and prove ideal. Ryan Moore takes the ride, which is a big positive, and it tells its own story: he was aboard Satono Reve last time and could not get him past Almeraq, so we have no reason to think Satono Reve reverses that here, and if anything Almeraq looks the underrated one of the principals. Mission Central, though, should relish the extra furlong, and at 6/1 he looks the bet, a price that is simply too big.

5:30 York, John Smith's Sprint (6f)

The one that caught our eye to finish is Good Earth, a real old warrior who has had well over a hundred races and been just about everywhere, York included plenty of times. The key with him is the mark: he tends to run well when the handicapper lets him in off a suitable one, and he is now down to a very low 73. He bounced back to a bit of form last time when beaten by Quantum Power at Newmarket, and that reads well, because Quantum Power has since reeled off two more wins off 75 and 81 and is now rated fully 16lb higher, so Good Earth simply bumped into a well-handicapped, improving type. He gets in off 73 back at a track he clearly likes, and we think he can run a really nice race. One more whose price we will be keeping an eye on.