Day 1 of Newmarket's July Festival is done, so here is how it went, race by race, alongside how our selections and ratings got on. A frustrating afternoon in places, a couple of good ones, and, as ever, plenty to talk about in the saddle.
Our review of the opening race is free to read below. The rest of the card, plus a thank you and an early selection we really like for Saturday, is for Premium and Pro members.
Point Of Law won it, beating Galiyan, with our selection Del Maro back in third. Frustrating, because Del Maro beat both of those at Ascot last time out, and this time the form has swung the other way. We did not see anything from Point Of Law or Galiyan that day to suggest Del Maro would get turned over here, and we still thought he would be too good. Maybe the pair have simply improved for the experience, having only had three runs, while Del Maro may just have found his level. He was not given the most inspired of rides by William Buick, but as always when a favourite is beaten, it was made out on Twitter to be one of the worst rides ever seen. It was not. That is just what happens when a jolly goes down, especially among those who backed it. The likelier truth is that this pair have improved past him. Longer term, we still think Galiyan is the best of these.
The 1:50 result: Point Of Law and Galiyan, with our selection Del Maro back in third.
Premium preview
The rest of this preview is for Premium members
Unlock our full analysis and selections with a RatingTheRaces membership. Already Premium? Just make sure you’re logged in.
Inner City Blues got up late to run down our selection Adaay Of Scarlett, and he looks a smart colt. It was actually Adaay Of Scarlett who got the run of the race up front, not the winner, and we would say Inner City Blues was not given the tidiest of rides either, yet he was still good enough to pick up and win. That was only his second start, so there should be more to come, and he is one to keep firmly onside. It was no disgrace from Adaay Of Scarlett, who ran her race, but Inner City Blues is the one to take out of this.
The 2:25 result: Inner City Blues running down our selection Adaay Of Scarlett.
Jazl won it down the near side under an inspired, confident ride from Jack Mitchell, who was brave enough to commit to the rail and stay there. In the first couple of races the near side looked clearly the place to be, so it was a real surprise to see so many come down the centre and the middle of the track. One of those was our selection Ten Carat Harry, which was frustrating. It was frustrating too that, having beaten Calico Blue last time, he could not do so again: Calico Blue finished second, and on that form Ten Carat Harry would probably have won had he matched it. We do not think Saffie Osborne is the strongest in the saddle, and it was a disappointing effort all round. We would like to see him back at Ascot, or on Newmarket's Rowley Mile, rather than this July course, which may just not suit him. Of those caught on the wrong side, Calico Blue clearly did best.
The 3:00 result: Jazl winning down the near side, with Calico Blue second.
This was won by our selection Rebel's Romance, but to these eyes it looked like Arabian Crown could have won had his rider wanted. James Doyle appeared to glance back more than once to see where William Buick and Rebel's Romance were, wary of getting too far clear. He put some pace into it, Rebel's Romance closed him down and went past, and Doyle eased. When Rebel's Romance looked like running away with it, Doyle got going again and set off in pursuit, only to ease a second time as he began to reel the winner back in, doing just enough to make sure Rebel's Romance held on. Christophe Soumillon has been banned and heavily criticised in the past for tactics judged to be helping another horse. It is a fair question to ask why a ride that looked like this does not attract the same scrutiny.
One other note from this race. Karl Burke suggested afterwards that he could not work out why Convergent had run so disappointingly here, but to us he did not disappoint at all: we had him rated fourth, and fourth is exactly where he finished. There is a reason, and it is in the data. His sire, Fascinating Rock, has a wretched record at this track. It is a small sample but a telling one: of his runners here, Rock Melody was sent off favourite and finished fifth, then ran again as third favourite and came tenth, Something Enticing was second favourite and finished third, and High Peak went off favourite and finished fifth. Every one of them underperformed the market, and Convergent simply followed suit. It is the kind of statistic that gets overlooked when horses are placed, and exactly the sort of thing that should be feeding into where and when they run.
The 3:35 result: Rebel's Romance home in front of stablemate Arabian Crown.
This one was all about the market. The late drift on Peaceful Charm, pushed out from 4/7 to 11/10, strongly suggested she was not one to be relying on, and so it proved. We had said beforehand that she would have to be pretty smart to beat Scommessa Sicura, and once that money drained away the winner looked far likelier. Scommessa Sicura ran a really nice race to win it well. It is a little bit of aftertiming, granted, but the signal was there. Peaceful Charm is probably still smart and should step forward plenty for the run.
The 4:10 result: Scommessa Sicura winning well, with the drifter Peaceful Charm only fourth.
Won by Shayem, this featured a curious ride on Oxagon. Why did his rider not try to make the running down the near side with the rest of them? If you want to kick a few lengths clear, do it over on that side. We wonder whether he would have held on had he raced down the near side; as it was he faded late and finished fifth. The two Godolphin runners were very disappointing: Wild Desert and our selection Morris Dancer, who either bounced after a long time off the track and a big run at Royal Ascot, or simply found that nineteen days had come around too soon. Not a race we would be taking a great deal out of.
The 4:45 result: Shayem winning the Sir Henry Cecil Stakes.
A good one to finish, as our selection Asmen Warrior won it, and he was well supported into 9/2 beforehand. It just goes to show our figure for his Windsor run was right: things simply did not go to plan at Epsom last time, where he got squeezed out and the race never came to suit. The blinkers that were on at Epsom came off, the visor went back on, and he ran a really good race to win. Our other pick, Shipbourne, was hugely disappointing. If anything you have to mark Asmen Warrior up further, because the way the race was run he had to come all the way around the outside and then work his way back into the middle, and he still won with a bit in hand. If he goes up only a few pounds there could well be more to come, and it is nice to be proved right after he was our third best and ran so flat last time.
The 5:20 result: our selection Asmen Warrior winning with a bit in hand.
All told, a mixed day. Del Maro, Ten Carat Harry and Morris Dancer did not fire, but Asmen Warrior delivered at a nice price and the ratings pointed us to plenty of the story. On to Day 2.
Still with us? Thank you, and one for Saturday
If you have read this far, thank you. We would genuinely love your feedback on these reviews, so please let us know what you think and what you would like more of.
As a thank you, here is one we like at this early stage for the 3:45 at York on Saturday: Castle Stuart, currently available at 16/1 and, to us, well overpriced.
The big appeal is the weights. He ran off 91 when sixth here in May, has since dropped to 88, and that is the mark he gets to run off on Saturday rather than his new rating of 92. In other words he is 4lb well in. Off 92 we would be far less interested, but off 88 he looks clearly ahead of the handicapper.
He also has course form that looks like it could be a plan. He has been to York twice in his last three starts. Three runs back, over course and distance, he looked well beaten before running on strongly to be sixth, beaten only three and a quarter lengths, and a furlong further he would have gone much closer. Last time, again over this course and distance and this time with a hood on, it was the same story: in trouble a long way out, then staying on powerfully all the way to the line. It is deep into the finish that he really picks up, and 1m2f56y looks bare minimum for him now.
The form is strong, too. That latest second was behind Antipodes, who had previously beaten Headmaster and our Newmarket winner Asmen Warrior. Headmaster has franked the form since, winning off 83 and then off 86, and running a big race when second off 91 as a well-backed favourite, while Asmen Warrior, as we have just seen, has come out and won at Newmarket, so that run behind Antipodes was no fluke. Antipodes is very smart, and Castle Stuart ran him all the way to the line over this trip off this mark.
The key is the ride. He wants to be up with the pace, ridden positively and kept up to his work, because if he is still there and travelling with a furlong to run, we think he will be finishing best of all. Get him involved, keep asking, and let his stamina do the rest.
Castle Stuart (2nd) staying on strongly behind the smart Antipodes at York, over course and distance off a mark of 88.
