Liam’s thoughts for some of the races at York!
Day 1 – Wednesday 17th August 2022
York 13:50 There’s a few here that are very interesting including Mondammej (beaten by Nunthorpe Fav last time he ran over CD), the 6 time course winner Copper Knight (won this race last year off a 6 lower mark – including the jockey claim), the still improving 3 year old Bond Chairman (maybe ran his worst race over CD in October), the very fast Live In The Dream (wasn’t at his best last time at Chester), the lightly raced and bottom of the handicap Dusky Lord but I’m hoping for a run for my money from a selection at a bigger price. Sunday Sovereign is that selection and he can currently be backed at 20/1. He was last seen at Yrok finishing a neck 2nd to Illuisionist and has also finished 3/4 length 2nd to Pendleton over CD on soft ground. I think he’s versatile ground wise and his jockey booking over William Buick is hugely eyecatching. He needs a rattling fast pace and to come late and I think he’s got a very good jockey on him with this in mind. After his last 2 runs he’s dropped back to a mark of 94 which is the same mark as when 2nd to Illusionist.
York 14:25 Local Dynasty
I highlighted him here and am not deserting him. He’s currently 2/1.
York 15:00 I think this is between Secret State and Aikhal and would be more keen on Aikhal if he had been running over 1m2f, 1m4f more. His last win over 1m2f came on his first run over that trip having previously never gone further than a mile. I am going on the basis that they have been bringing him along slowly rather than couldn’t find his trip and have stumbled into it here. If this is the sort of trip he wants (and maybe further) then he could very tough to beat. His last time out performance was very good. He’s my bet at 7/2.
York 15:35 I want to watch and hopefully see Baaeed win this and prove himself versatile trip wise.
York 16:10 Lots of form lines here but I hope that Frankenstella can improve for his comeback where he ran well over this CD for 3rd when doing well from the rear of the field. The runner up that day was Master Milliner but he is 10lb worse off and for me that straight away would suggest Frankenstella is a good bet at 10/1 compared to Master Milliner who is the 11/2 favourite. As well as this decent return from nearly a year off the track he has previously won over CD as a 3 year old and finished a decent 4th in a race where he got hampered at a crucial time. Having won on Heavy going at Haydock (beating Rajinsky) any rain wont inconvenience him.
York 16:45 When I first looked at this race, I thought it looked like a race I would skip but I think I have an angle that I like. The Filly I like is Designer who was last seen finishing 6th at Royal Ascot in a race won by Latin Lover over 5f. She was a bit isolated during the race and ran on strongly at the finish and I hope here she can get a better tow through the race under David Egan. Drawn in 5, I would hope David can switch in behind the wall of horses and try and be carried for most of the race. Before her effort at Ascot she had been tried in 2 Listed races at Chelmsford and Haydock and whilst she was well beaten in both, both races have worked out well. The 8th at Chelmsford saw her finish just behind Princess Shabnam whilst she wasn’t far behind Gale Force May at Haydock. I think if they go fast enough and she gets cover she can go close here. She’s 11/1 currently.
I can’t currently find an angle in the 5:20 but if I do I will post in on the Ratings themselves.
Day 2 – Thursday 18th August 2022
York 1:50 The ratings strongly suggest that Dramatised wins this but the form of her win at Royal Ascot doesn’t look great. Maylandsea (2nd) has been beaten twice since (comfortably), Maria Branwell disappointed at Newbury (8th), Miami Girl was 11th at Newbury, Katey Kontent was 6th and lots of other similar efforts from those in behind Dramatised. When those in behind have dropped into maiden & novice company they have been able to win but so should a lot that run at Royal Ascot. The Platinum Queen back in 13th is arguably the only Filly that gives this race any semblance of being good form. This would all concern me that we’ve overrated Dramatised for her win at Royal Ascot. Therefore I want to take her on and the Filly I’m taking her on with is Mawj who I was very impressed with when winning at Newmarket and backed her at Royal Ascot when she was beaten by Meditate (I believe is a Group 1 Filly) and Mawj franked that form by winning at Newmarket in a Group 2 next time. Ivory Madonna wasn’t beaten far in a Group 3 since whilst Sydneyarms Chelsea has won a Group 3 in France. I would definitely argue this race has been franked more than Dramatised. Mawj can be backed at 9/2 and I would be disappointed if she doesn’t give the favourite a race here.
York 14:25 I highlighted Dare To Hope after he was 12th in Super Sprint at Newbury having not had a run at all and didn’t even have a proper race that day. I was hopeful he could win a Nursery off 86 but he was no match for Catch The Paddy (declared for a Group 2 on Friday). If Catch The Paddy is a Group 2 horse, Dare to Hope arguably didn’t have a chance against him and ran well enough for 2nd. I don’t think this Premier Yearling Stakes features a future Group 2 horse with those with handicap marks only ranging from 61 to 93 and it’s the lightly raced horses that are arguably the biggest dangers. That said I think the form of Dare To Hope is plenty good enough to challenge those at this stage of their career and think the 15/2 about Dare To Hope looks a good price.
York 15:00 Isla Kai @ 20/1 (POSTED YESTERDAY). See why here: bit.ly/AyrANDYork22
I also want to give Saga another chance here with Ryan Moore booked to ride. He was one of the eyecatchers for many at Royal Ascot when he ran on strongly for 2nd behind Thesis in the Brittania Stakes and was then sent off the 7/4 favourite for a handicap at Ascot (the winner is being aimed at a Group 1 now having won since). Benoit rode Saga completely different this day at Ascot compared to Frankie’s ride at the Royal meeting and I expect to see Ryan revert to hold up tactics particularly with the poor draw and almost being forced to go for these tactics. John Gosden finished 2nd in this race last year with Magical Morning whilst Ryan Moore was 3rd and hopefully with them teaming up this year they can turn this into a 1st (or 2nd if behind Isla Kai). Saga is 12/1 currently.
York 15:35 Alpinista has done nothing wrong and keeps winning but I want to take her on with La Petite Coco who I think has form slightly stronger with her defeat of My Astra a very strong piece of form especially as she had not run for 287 days. She’s had a 53 day break since then so I don’t think the ‘bounce’ will be an issue and if the step up in suits and brings out a bit more improvement then I think she’ll be tough to beat. She’s 11/2 and that’s too big for me.
York 16:10 I can’t find any I like this race so will be watching it with the future in mind.
York 16:45 X J Rascal @ 7/1 (15/2 at Bet365 but who has a Bet365 account!?) (POSTED YESTERDAY).
See why here: bit.ly/AyrANDYork22
I am also going to have a bet on One Nation here who has arguably been running behind horses that could have seen him take in a Listed or Group race. His 2nd behind Dance In The Grass was a good effort in hindsight as she has gone on to win a Listed race. He had also finished 3rd to Naval Power who has won a Listed race whilst his defeat of Golden Speech was franked when he ran 2nd behind Nostrum with Arrest back in 3rd. He runs off 93 here but I don’t think that’s beyond him and think he’ll end up in Listed and Group races. He’s 9/2 in most places (5/1 at WH). Land of Summer winning would be the kick in the teeth here.
York 17:20 I’ve quietly been a fan of Queen Aminatu this season but don’t think she’s quite been in the right races. Last time out back into a handicap she ran a great race for 2nd not beaten far by Tarrabb who could just be well ahead of her mark. She beat Out From Under at Ascot and I suggested Out From Under had ‘bumped into one’ and think that was proven when Out From Under won next time and so did Tarrabb. The 3rd placed Canoodled took on Tarrabb again in the race with Queen Aminatu and finished 4th suggesting the form held up well. With that in mind, I think Queen Aminatu is the right one to beat here and the right favourite at 2/1
Day 3 – Friday 19th August 2022
York 13:50 I can’t get away from Cormier here who returned to the flat after a good season over hurdles (won a Greatwood & The Morebattle Hurdle) and won on his return to the flat at Chester off a mark of 80. This was 58lb lower than his hurdles mark and even now after going up in the handicap, he’s still 50lb lower which for me suggests there is still a bit off leeway in that mark if he’s as good as on the flat as he is over hurdles. Looking at his flat form suggests he could be as he comfortably won at Chester beating City Streak who looked a progressive 3 year old. Cormier also has CD form to his name as he won back in July 2021 beating Noble Masquerade and Anythingtoday. Noble Masquerade had won at Kempton before finishing 2nd and then came out and won at Windsor off a 10lb higher mark whilst the 3rd placed Anythingtoday won his next 2 starts at Newmarket and Lingfield. There are lots of positives about Cormier and I would be surprised if he didn’t go off favourite despite being 8/1 currently.
I am going to go with one more here and that comes in the shape of Lord Protector. Interestingly Lewis (one of a few people worth following on twitter) wrote about that one here.
York 14:25 I was keeping an eye out for last years winner in this race Sam Cooke as I felt he running well enough recently to suggest a repeat could be on the cards so it was interesting to see him not declared and instead Ralph Beckett and Rob Hornby team up with Lord Protector. As highlighted by Lewis, he was one of just a few that made any ground from the back of the field at Goodwood on Day 1 and his performance can be marked up as he kept getting blocked by Caradoc & Palavecino and it wasn’t until the final furlong that he got a clear run and arguably finished best of all. A step up in trip should suit and if he gets a clear run then you would hope he can go very close. He’s also 8/1 here.
York 14:25 Stradivarius doesn’t have Kyprios against him here and I think he’s better than Trueshan and the rest shouldn’t be good enough. Our Ratings suggest he should win this and he’s 6 from 6 here whilst Trueshan was beaten in an Ebor off 109. 11/8 is worth a bet for me.
York 15:00 Noble Style and Royal Scotsman have the form in the bag and the starting points here and with Noble Style having already beaten Royal Scotsman on debut (and in good style and is 3lb better off), I see no reason why Royal Scotsman can reverse that form. Last time out Noble Style beat Mill Steam who although only finished 4th yesterday in a Group 3 , if it had been a 6f race (like when they raced against each other), Mill Steam would have finished 2nd. Noble Style’s defeat of Walbank also looks good form as he’s since placed in a Group 2 and Group 3 race. 3/1 looks a good price to me.
York 15:35 This could come down to where the pace is and who gets the best tow through the race. I think we will see Flotus, The Platinum Queen & Winter Power drawn high going forward and Emaraaty Ana and Lazuli drawn low going forward. I think each of these ‘groups’ will set the race up for Highfield Princess (high) and Royal Acclaim (low) With all the allowances, I think we will see The Platinum Queen let free by Hollie Doyle and allowed to go a mental pace and try and hang on and that for me might make it better to be drawn high and even more so if you have that bit of stamina to be finishing strongly which Highfield Princess has and she’s going to be my selection. It’s very possible she gets outpaced early on but I hope Jason keeps pushing away as she will kick in to turbo in the final furlong. She’s 9/1 (10/1 at Bet365 but no one any good has a Bet365 account!)
York 16:10 Shampion looks like one of these Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum improvers that runs in a handicap and shows the handicap mark to be all wrong. I don’t think she’s got loads in hand but do think there is more to come and her mark of 84 is not enough. After a 4th place last season she didn’t run again until returning this season at Haydock where she finished a good 2nd to Shaara who has since won again beating Persist at Nottingham. Shampion being beaten by Shaara over 7f was a good effort and whilst both demonstrated they wanted further next time, Shampion did it in a Novice event at Windsor in good style and the handicapper has had to try and work that out. The 2nd that day who was a long way behind Oriole had previous won at Leicester and through form lines of Qabilah and Sharaa again I think it looks good form. If the form is as strong as I think and hope then I think she’ll go off favourite and 7/2 will look quite big.
York 16:45 I had this as a match between Classic and Desert Order who I think are both going to end up in Group races and I’m even going to suggest Group 1 races. Classic has been declared a NR already and that leaves me with just Desert Order who in this lucrative maiden takes all the beating. His defeat by Arrest (highlighted as an eyecatcher when 3rd) was a very good effort and a reproduction here and I think he wins. Normally I worry about maiden’s who are having their 3rd run but that’s because they don’t want to win a £5k maiden whereas this £41k to the winner maiden is worth winning. 6/4 currently. I think Lahab will take a big step forward from his debut effort and can run on into a place here.
York 17:20 Operating has come out TOP RATED for the Gosden’s who won this race last year with Rifleman (their only recent runner in the race) and I had highlighted Crenelle for this race for the Gosden’s. I’m confident that Crenelle isn’t running because they expect Operating to take all the beating. Owned by the Magnier family, you can’t imagine they would be that fussed with a 91 rated colt unless he was very progressive and well handicapped and a £50k race and then the Cambridgeshire are surely the aim otherwise he’s one that could be retired/sold at the end of the season. He’s 4/1 currently.
Day 4 – Saturday 20th August 2022
York 13:50 After running a good race for 5th at Royal Ascot in a Group 1, Mighty Ulysses has had his sights lowered and won at Newmarket in a Listed race and steps up to a Group 3 here. You have to think they are playing the long game with him as usually finishing 5th in a Group 1 wouldn’t see horses dropped back in class for more than 1 run. He’s trying just shy of 1m2f here and I think that’s with the future in mind to see if he gets further than 1m without really stepping him up in class. I’m sure connections are hoping even if he doesn’t suggest a further step up in trip will suit, he can still win. The 2nd favourite was behind Mighty Ulysses last time out at Newmarket and I think the step up WILL suit Mighty Ulysses and can’t see who to take him on with. Mighty Ulysses @ 11/8
York 14:25 Soulcombe was highlight in our Goodwood Eyecatchers here. The tongue tie and step up in trip should help. Soulcombe @ 3/1
York 15:00 Sacred was another from the Goodwood Eyecatchers. I don’t want to give up on here. Sacred @ 4/1
York 15:35 Trawlerman – I thought his win last time out was a lot easier than it looked and just a 5lb penalty may not be enough to stop him
I am also keen on the other Godolphin runner Global Storm. His recent efforts behind Rebel’s Romance (subsequent Group 1 winner) and Yibir (previous Group 1 winner) were good efforts with his 4th coming when just behind Fancy Man (3lb better off) and in front of John Leeper (1lb better off) and looked like the extra distance would suit him the most. If we go back to his most recent handicap run it was here at York when finishing 4th behind Gaassee (9lb better off today) when he appeared to be getting outpaced early on in the straight and although a few came past him he continued to stay strong late on and only lost by 4 lengths. The extra trip is what I think can bring him firmly in this race and I’m surprised he’s 25/1 when John Leeper is only 16/1.
My 3rd selection in the race at 33/1 or even 40/1 in places is Raymond Tusk who has been to York twice and finished 4th in an Ebor off 111 and 2nd over 1m 3f 188y off 98. When he was 4th he was arguably unlucky not to win the race as he got no run at all and was still nearly last of the main group with 2 furlongs to run. He eventually got a run with 1/2 furlong to go and finished really well for 4th beaten just 2 lengths. He then didn’t come back to York for nearly 2 years when he was sent off 40/1 for a handicap in a race featuring the highly progressive Ilaraab. Raymond Tusk travelled like the winner that day and maybe hit the front too soon but was only beaten by Ilaraab. Ilaraab then went on to the Ebor itself and was sent off the 5/1 favourite but disappointed but has won twice since and back up to a mark of 112 suggesting this poor effort was just a blip. Ilaraab is therefore 12lb higher than when winning at York beating Raymond Tusk and would likely be near favouritism for the Ebor if he were in it whilst Raymond Tusk is up 5lb and a massive price!
York 16:10 Both Regional and Summerghand were eyecatchers at Goodwood. Whilst Summerghand has since run in the Great St Wilfred he again was eyecatching and can definitely win a feature race soon. Regional @ 7/1 & Summerghand @ 9/1
York 16:45 Treasure Trove makes a quick reappearance after finishing 2nd last weekend behind Mauiewowie when beaten on the line. I think that’s really strong form and I’m a big fan of Mauiewowie and a reproduction of that 2nd and I think Treasure Trove can beat Rocket Rodney. Treasure Trove @ 7/2