Cheltenham Day 4 – Friday

In this post, we will identify the top contenders that pose the greatest threat to the favourites in the Day 4 races at the Cheltenham Festival. By analysing various factors such as form, distance, and more, we aim to find reasons why the favourites may not be as strong as their odds suggest and could potentially be beaten by another horse. Our goal is to uncover potential upsets and let’s hope we have a few here!

Zarak The Brave was impressive on hurdles debut at Fairyhouse before stepping up to Grade 3 company and bumping into Lossiemouth. I think Lossiemouth wins the Triumph Hurdle and I think Zarak The Brave chases her home again. Both were too good for Comfort Zone who came over to Chepstow to win the Grade 2 Juvenile Finale. Comfort Zone had been impressive at Navan when winning and I think this Grade 3 at Fairyhouse will be one of the strongest pieces of Juvenile form. How can Zarak The Brave beat Lossiemouth? I would suggest trying to be more patient and coming with a run similar to how Lossiemouth is going to.

Current Favourite: Lossiemouth @ 5/4

Zarak The Brave – OUT after Colic Surgery

West Cork has had 3 runs over fences and hasn’t convinced in any including when pulling up last time out at Kempton over 2 ½ mile. He’s rated 139 over fences and I think could be competitive in a Grand Annual but with his experiences over fences not going that well so far, I think connections may be tempted to drop him back to hurdles and I think he’ll be allocated a similar mark. He ran in this County Hurdle last year finishing 4th off 141 when not getting the clearest of runs. He was 4th behind State Man (26lb higher) , First Street (now rated 8lb higher) and Colonel Mustard who likes they are trying to get him well handicapped over fences. With this in mind, West Cork arguably ran a really good race for 4th and off a similar mark would surely go very close! If there is a Morebattle/County Hurdle double bonus this year then I could see Dan Skelton running both West Cork and Faivoir at Kelso trying to set one up for the double.

Current Favourite: Winter Fog/Filey Bay @ 12/1

West Cork @ 25/1

Weveallbeencaught started his hurdling career off over 2m5f suggesting this was likely to be the minimum he really wants before he really excels. His 3rd place on that day behind Hermes Allen and Music Drive was probably a good run and he got off the mark at Cheltenham in January. I think it’s really encouraging to see him getting experience of Cheltenham and fully expect him to be even better when stepped up in trip. He made all the running last time out which is usually a sign a horse stays further and they wanted to bring his stamina into play. The front pair were well clear of 3rd and although the runner up was 66/1 that may have been more due to connections than ability.

Current Favourite: Hiddenvalley Lake @ 11/2

Weveallbeencaught @ 20/1

Minella Indo is my one for the Gold Cup. You can’t ignore his Cheltenham Festival form which reads 1212. He’s a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner already and arguably went for home way too early last year and yet still finished 2nd beating the likes of Protekorat, Galvin and Al Boum Photo. He returned with a win at Tramore beating Stattler and although he will be worse off at the festival, I fully expect him to come on for the run and his Cheltenham Festival form to come to the fore. I would be disappointed if he’s not involved turning into the straight.

Current Favourite: Galopin Des Champs @ 7/4

Minella Indo @ 25/1

Billaway won last year and I think he’ll take all the beating again. If he had jumped the 3rd last and 5th last better and even met the last on a good stride he would have won a lot more comfortable. He just kept getting himself behind due to his poor jumping and yet he was still good enough to win. I think he won’t make as many mistakes this year and be a lot closer turning in. If he is then you would expect him to finish strongly and I think he’s the one to beat.

Current Favourite: Vaucelet @ 3/1

Billaway @ 7/1

Impervious was quite good over hurdles finishing 5th, 6th and 5th in Graded races. His 6th came in the Mares Novice Hurdle last year when not beaten far and staying on strongly. Since going chasing she has looked much improved. She won a beginners chase at Wexford beating Cayd Boy (previously rated 149 over hurdles) and then won a Grade 2 Mares Novice Chase beating the JP McManus owned Dinoblue. Interestingly JP has since purchased Impervious, potentially thinking if she can beat Dinoblue she must be very good. Allegorie De Vassy will be hard to beat but she might not make the festival as her last run in December was her first for 333 days.

Current Favourite: Allegorie De Vassy @ 15/8

Impervious @ 7/2

Favori De Champdou is a bit of a dark horse here as he could run in the Albert Bartlett after winning a Grade 2 at Limerick over 2m7f and this would be a slight drop back in trip however connections would be confident he would run all the way to the line. Interestingly he’s only rated 136 in Ireland which will get the ‘Irish Allowance’ and be rated somewhere around 142-144 which would be similar to Hollow Games who ran for Gordon last year in this race. I think on what they’ve shown however Favori De Champdou would have achieved more so far than Hollow Games had and he ran a great race for 3rd . Gordon has won this race twice with Blow By Blow & Champagne Classic both owned by Gigginstown and had Dallas Des Picton and Defi Bleu finish 2nd and 3rd in 2019 & Toner D’Oudaries finish 2nd in 2012. Gordon Elliott (Denise pair finished 5th & 8th) with Gigginstown in this race reads F231132. Gigginstown also won this race with Sir Des Champs & Don Poli.

Current Favourite: Langer Dan @ 9/1

Favori De Champdou @ 16/1

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