The July Festival gets under way at Newmarket, three days of top-class racing building to Saturday's July Cup, the Group 1 6f sprint and the feature of the meeting. We have been right through the opening day's card and picked out our selections, from an even-money fancy we are confident about to a couple we think are far too big a price.
The opening race is the day's free race, so our analysis of it below is free for everyone. The rest of the card, with our selections and prices, is for Premium members.
Our idea of the winner is Del Maro. He was a very good second in the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot a couple of weeks ago, a run that made our eyecatchers, where we called him very unlucky and felt he probably should have won. We also flagged Galiyan to improve, though he may just not have got home over 1m6f at this stage. Galiyan is the obvious danger and will win races in future, but Del Maro's Ascot run was the stronger of the two, there is not a big difference in trip, and we see no reason why he does not confirm the form. The better horse at this stage of their careers, and he can go one better than Ascot. A 7/4 favourite, and that looks the right price.
Del Maro (2nd) in the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot, the run that made our eyecatchers.
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Only four runners, which is disappointing, but we will take the ratings on trust. Inner City Blues, the second favourite, has only run to a figure of 124.6 and needs to step up a long way to beat Adaay of Scarlett, whose latest run, when only just touched off by Great Barrier Reef, reads really well (a strong Coventry, too). It is also about experience: this is Adaay of Scarlett's fifth start against just one for Inner City Blues. That single run was a good York win over Stardom Glory (since successful in a Chester maiden), but he has plenty to prove. At the prices, Adaay of Scarlett at 2/1 is the bet.
Adaay of Scarlett (2nd) only just denied by Great Barrier Reef in a strong Coventry at Royal Ascot.
We highlighted Ten Carat Harry (Jamie Osborne trains, Saffie Osborne rides) last time and thought he ran far better than the bare result. Held up a long way back, he looked beaten before flying home late; a couple more strides and he is surely second. He goes back up to 6f, which looks the right call: they tried 7f on his turf return in a Listed race, then dropped him to 5f, which came a fraction too quick. This 6f on turf is the same distance he won over earlier this season (beating Man Of Vision), albeit on Newmarket's other course, and he looks in good form. Nothing wrong with his Royal Ascot run either. He is the one to be on, and 10/1 looks big.
Ten Carat Harry (3rd) flying late behind Bacio and Sandal's Song at Royal Ascot, better than the bare result.
One where the ratings should simply get it right and the best horse wins, and the clear best is Rebel's Romance. A hugely talented 8yo who has been all around the world: last seen winning a Group 2 at Meydan, second in a Grade 1 at Del Mar, a Grade 1 winner in the States, and good enough to finish third behind Calandagan and Kalpana in the Group 1 King George. That is plenty good enough here. He just needs to run close to his best and we think he wins. It looks an ideal stepping stone back towards the King George at Ascot at the end of the month, so this is essentially a fitness run, but we still expect him to win. No price at evens, but that is fair. One that just wins.
Rebel's Romance winning at Ascot, comfortably the class act of this field.
A watching brief rather than a bet. Peaceful Charm is a very short favourite at 4/7 and a two-million-euro yearling, but she has to be smart to beat Scommessa Sicura, who is no mug: second behind Musical Times (since a good Yarmouth winner) and second at Newbury to Aperol (later a fine third in a Listed race at Royal Ascot). That is solid form. Peaceful Charm will have to be a proper filly to beat her, and if she does it well she is one to mark up as a strong maiden and follow.
Scommessa Sicura (2nd) just chinned at Yarmouth by Musical Times, a winner since.
Godolphin love this meeting and we think they hold the winner in Morris Dancer. He ran a decent third in the Jersey Stakes, a Group 3, so this is a drop in class, and that was his first run back this season. He should step forward from it significantly, and if he does he takes all the beating. Like Rebel's Romance, everything slots into place. Godolphin's runners here are priced accordingly, but 11/8 is fair for one who can win this before heading back into group company.
Morris Dancer (3rd) in the Group 3 Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, dropping in class here.
We like two. First, the unexposed, massively improving Shipbourne, the favourite, stepping up to 1m from 7f. He has done everything right, won a novice over 7f, and now goes up in trip into handicaps, the type to keep improving as he gets further. He looks the one to beat. Second, if there is a horse to bounce back, it is Asmen Warrior. He was our 3B last time at Epsom, where he was well supported at 5/1 but ran no race after getting away slowly and short of room. That was a real disappointment after a very good Windsor run when beaten by Antipodes, and he had been really consistent before that, so we wonder if the blinkers were not helping. They come off now with a visor back on, and this could be the day. He is out to 15/2, with Shipbourne 7/2 the two we like to end the card.
Asmen Warrior (2nd) running well behind Antipodes at Windsor before his Epsom flop.
