---
title: "Value Odds, Value % and Win % — RatingTheRaces Support"
description: "Value Odds are the fair odds our algorithm gives each horse; Win % turns that into a win chance; Value % compares the live market price to that fair price."
url: https://ratingtheraces.com/understanding-the-ratings/value-odds/
date_modified: "2026-09-01"
---

[Help Centre](https://ratingtheraces.com/support/) / [Understanding the Ratings](https://ratingtheraces.com/understanding-the-ratings/) /Value Odds, Value % and Win %

# Value Odds, Value % and Win %

Concept premium / professional new

Value Odds are the fair odds our algorithm sets for each runner. Value % measures the live market price against those fair odds, so anything over 100% is trading bigger than we think it should.

Three closely linked columns on the ratings: **Value Odds** tell you what a horse *should* be, **Win %** turns that into a plain win chance, and **Value %** tells you whether the market agrees.

## Value Odds

**Value Odds are the fair odds our algorithm calculates for each runner**, based on its true chance of winning the race. Think of them as the price the horse *ought* to be if the market read the form the way our model does. A horse with Value Odds of 3.0 is, in our estimation, a genuine 2/1 chance.

## Win %

**Win %** is the same thing said as a percentage instead of a price. Our Value Odds form a fair, normalised book, so the win chance is simply:

> Win % = 100 ÷ Value Odds

So Value Odds of 4.0 is a **25%** chance and 2.0 is a **50%** chance, and because it's a proper book, **every runner's Win % in a race adds up to 100**. Use it if you think in percentages, or to compare our chance with the probability a bookmaker's price implies.

## Value %

**Value % compares the live Win odds to the Value Odds**, as a percentage:

> Value % = current Win odds ÷ Value Odds × 100

That gives you a single number telling you whether a horse is trading bigger or shorter than its fair price:

-   **Over 100%** means the market price is **bigger** than our fair odds, so the horse is **value** (an overlay). The higher the number, the bigger the overlay.
-   **Exactly 100%** means the market and our fair odds agree.
-   **Under 100%** means the horse is **shorter** than our fair odds, so it's poor value on the day (an underlay).

For example, a horse we rate a fair 2.63 that's trading at 3.15 in the market shows a Value % of about 120%: it's a fifth bigger than we think it should be.

## Using them

Value Odds and Value % update live as the market moves, so a horse can drift into value or shorten out of it through the morning. A strong [RTR Rank](https://ratingtheraces.com/understanding-the-ratings/r1-rank/) trading well above its fair price, a high Value %, is exactly the kind of overlay worth a closer look. You'll find both columns defined alongside every other one in the [ratings columns reference](https://ratingtheraces.com/understanding-the-ratings/ratings-columns-reference/).

Value is about price, not certainty: a value horse is one trading bigger than its fair odds, not one that's guaranteed to win. Over many bets, backing genuine value is how an edge shows up.

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