What to look for when selecting a horse racing ratings service!
The 4 main areas to choose the Best Horse Racing Ratings service!
Seems like a strange or biased article for a Ratings service provider to publish right? But once upon a time we were ratings service customers, rather than a ratings provider. Our experiences completely shaped the way we run the RatingTheRaces service today. Below is a short list of things that frustrated us when we were customers of Ratings services and are rules, we subsequently hold ourselves to.
ONLY ONE TOP RATED HORSE PER RACE
Seems obvious right? But so many services have a TopRated, a Top Speed Rated, a Top Course Rated, a white flag, a squiggly mark, marked with a P and so on and so forth. Now in our opinion it is OK to provide supplementary ratings within your core ratings, however.. you only get to shout about ONE of them. If you are marketing the fact that you got a winner, you can only do so for your main rating. For us this is our RTR Rank, the Rating which takes into account all the data.
“If you are marketing the fact that you got a winner, you can only do so for your main Rating”
NO BACK FITTING TO CREATE YOUR NEW… AMAZING… RECORD…
Every now and then we see a new ‘Ratings provider’ try to make it as a competitor to ours. They can often turn up with a competitive looking strike rate (% of times they correctly predict the outcome of a race.) However shortly after launch their results slide… and continue to slide. Why is this? How did they achieve such great results and are now falling apart? This is the result of backfitting or overfitting of data. Here at RatingTheRaces we have a proprietary method of making sure we don’t overfit our data and enough data to make a model which stands the test of time. To date we have not found a Ratings model more accurate than our own. If ever someone did produce a Ratings service more accurate than ours it would undoubtably force us to up our game.
“To date we have not found a Ratings model more accurate than our own”
ACCURACY IS KING
Having the best Ratings Algorithm is so SO important. Let’s consider the following scenario; Ratings provider has A 26% strike rate (accuracy at predicting the winner) costs £15 per month, Ratings provider B a 27% strike rate but costs £30 per month. Which is better value? If you went for option A, I am afraid you have become a victim of ‘false economy’ – it seems cheaper, but ultimately costs you more in the long run. A 1% difference is 130 extra winners for Ratings Service B over the course of a year. It can make the difference between landing that £100,000 multiple and not. Every 1% in ratings accuracy is increasingly difficult to get.
The counter to “Accuracy Is King” would be “Value is King” however you can not determine value without accuracy! In other word’s accuracy of ratings model gives you the tools to infer when there is and isn’t value!
Just in case you are interested… we can demonstrate a 26% strike rate with just 7 parameters (analysed perfectly) to get to 26.5%… it takes about 30 parameters and to get to 27%.. it takes 100 parameters. Like eeking out performance in a car engine, law of diminishing returns means it becomes increasingly difficult to improve a ratings performance.
CUSTOMER SERVICE, CUSTOMER SERVICE, CUSTOMER SERVICE
As many of our members will attest, we take customer service very seriously and we try our best to help all members regardless of their technical capability or experience with horse racing. Below is just a sample of recent testimonials provided by our users.